Trade the Cycles

Thursday, December 08, 2005

................NEM Is Leading To The Upside As Usual

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.19% yesterday vs the XAU, was a very bullish +1.28% the day before, was a bullish +0.61% on Monday, was a bullish +1.02% last week, and is leading to the upside again today. Amazingly good indicator. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn very bearish for a few days when the monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 5 short term cycle high and potentially monthly cycle high occurs. So, that fact combined with yesterday's major breakout by NEM (HUI and the XAU have also broken out to new highs for this Bull Market/very long term upcycle since late 2000) points to probably at least two more days of upside.

XAU Implied Volatility fell modestly to 30.370 yesterday from 30.515 on 12-6 vs a +1.91% rise in the XAU yesterday which is a significant rise in fear that portends strength during part of today's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose an unusually large (> 6%) 18.87% to 0.74673 today from 0.62820 yesterday, which is an unusually large rise in fear that usually portends weakness, but, given the major breakout yesterday and how bullish the NEM Lead Indicator is it's difficult to believe that weakness/a downtrend will last long today, but it does point to weakness for some of today's session. Ciao

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