Trade the Cycles

Friday, December 09, 2005

The Elliot Wave 5 Short Term Upcycle Since November 30 Is Peaking

After the huge spike move from early Tuesday until early Wednesday, HUI, NEM, and the XAU's Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle since November 30 really had to roll over (see link below), because the rally was amazingly strong for about a session (NEM rose 9.18%!). Short term and potentially monthly cycle highs may occur today or will probably occur in the next day or two. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= NEM is underperforming the XAU by a slight % right now and began to underperform yesterday (by-0.41%) which is a bearish indication. Since a short term and potentially monthly cycle high appears imminent I sold most of my positions yesterday and will probably be completely in cash by session's end.

XAU Implied Volatility fell modestly to 30.180 yesterday from 30.370 on 12-7 vs a +1.80% rise in the XAU yesterday which is a significant rise in fear that portends strength during part of today's session. The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose an unusually large (> 6%) 11.65% to 0.83370 today from 0.74673 yesterday, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends weakness for part of today's session. The unusually large (> 6%) rise in the XAU Put/Call Ratio the past two sessions from 0.62820 to 0.83370 points to a substantial decline in the XAU in the near future because it's an unusually large rise in fear. Ciao

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