NEM's Very Big Spike Points To A Likely Monthly Cycle High

NEM's monster spike on Monday 12-12 indicates that a monthly cycle high probably occurred that day http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NEM&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= . The larger the spike the more likely it's an important cycle high, and, a 2% follow through monthly cycle sell signal occurred the session before (on Friday 12-9).

Some analysts believe that a major top has just occurred, which, if you read my weekly updates, http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html (scroll down a few pages past the major averages work), know that's unlikely because the prior long term cycle highs in Dec 2003 (HUI, NEM)/Jan 2004 (XAU) were just exceeded in this minor intermediate/monthly upcycle, and, using extrapolation with the prior long term cycle highs since the gold/silver stock Bull Market began in late 2000, and the fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively/substantially longer, provides long term cycle high target ranges of 330-350 for HUI, 70-75 for NEM, and 150-160 for the XAU (XAU seems low and may be revised to 160-170) that should be reached in the May 2006 timeframe. If the major int term upcycle trendlines since May 16, 2005 (long term upcycle since May 10, 2004) break down my "Trade the Cycles" system and therefore I will turn bearish. Ciao!