...............SPX (S & P 500) Index Funds, The 800 Lb Gorilla
SPX index funds are probably the largest NEM traders on most if not all days. Notice that SPX's peaks/troughs usually occur before those of the NEM dominated XAU
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=l&q=b&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC . SPX's minor int term cycle is in the very flat topping area and appears to have peaked last week, which should prevent HUI, NEM, and the XAU from testing last Monday 12-12's likely minor int term cycle highs. So, last Wednesday's short term cycle low was probably the culmination of Elliot Wave A down and an Elliot Wave B short term upcycle of the monthly downcycle is in progress now. This means that a minor int term/monthly cycle low could occur late this week or next week.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been bullish recently at neutral vs the XAU so far today, +2.15% last week, and +1.06% the week before. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn bearish today (was -0.24% on Friday) and a short term cycle high should occur today or tomorrow. Note that the XAU filled it's upside gap at 122.95 (created on 12-14) today and often cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action.
XAU Implied Volatility fell -3.73% to 31.250 on Friday 12-16 from 32.460 on 12-15 versus a +1.26% rise in the XAU on 12-16, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.47% rise in complacency (-3.73% + +1.26% = -2.47%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.47%, therefore complacency rose by +2.47%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 12-19's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell an unusually large (> 6%) 7.89% to 1.26264 today from 1.37086 on 12-16 which is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends some strength today.
Once HUI, NEM, and the XAU put in lower cycle highs than 12-12's a monthly downcycle will be confirmed and I'll look to buy XAU Puts. Ciao
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EXAU&l=off&z=l&q=b&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC . SPX's minor int term cycle is in the very flat topping area and appears to have peaked last week, which should prevent HUI, NEM, and the XAU from testing last Monday 12-12's likely minor int term cycle highs. So, last Wednesday's short term cycle low was probably the culmination of Elliot Wave A down and an Elliot Wave B short term upcycle of the monthly downcycle is in progress now. This means that a minor int term/monthly cycle low could occur late this week or next week.
The NEM Lead Indicator has been bullish recently at neutral vs the XAU so far today, +2.15% last week, and +1.06% the week before. The NEM Lead Indicator should turn bearish today (was -0.24% on Friday) and a short term cycle high should occur today or tomorrow. Note that the XAU filled it's upside gap at 122.95 (created on 12-14) today and often cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action.
XAU Implied Volatility fell -3.73% to 31.250 on Friday 12-16 from 32.460 on 12-15 versus a +1.26% rise in the XAU on 12-16, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.47% rise in complacency (-3.73% + +1.26% = -2.47%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by -2.47%, therefore complacency rose by +2.47%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Monday 12-19's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell an unusually large (> 6%) 7.89% to 1.26264 today from 1.37086 on 12-16 which is an unusually large rise in complacency that portends some strength today.
Once HUI, NEM, and the XAU put in lower cycle highs than 12-12's a monthly downcycle will be confirmed and I'll look to buy XAU Puts. Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:54 AM
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