Monthly/Minor Intermediate Term Cycle Lows Are Likely In The Next Week
So, Monthly/Minor Intermediate Term Cycle Lows could occur by week's end. The US stock market is open on Friday the 23rd and is closed on Monday the 26th. The NYSE calendar didn't indicate that Friday was a half day, so it appears to be a full session, but I'll check the NASDAQ calendar and see.
In the monthly downcycle it appears that HUI, NEM, and the XAU could, based on their major upcycle trendlines in the latest 1 year charts, fall to 235-245 (HUI), 45-47 (NEM), and 109-114 (XAU).
Some analysts believe (they're guessing and you can't guess this stuff) that a major top has just occurred, which is unlikely because the prior long term cycle highs in December 2003 (HUI, NEM)/January 2004 (XAU) were just exceeded in this minor intermediate/monthly upcycle (258.60 for HUI on 12-2-03, 50.28 for NEM on 12-2-03, and 113.41 for the XAU on 1-6-04), and, using extrapolation with the prior long term cycle highs since the gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle began in late 2000, and the fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively/substantially longer, provides long term cycle high target ranges of 330-350 for HUI, 70-75 for NEM, and 150-160 for the XAU (XAU seems low and may be revised to 160-170) that should be reached in the May 2006 timeframe. If the major intermediate term upcycle trendlines since May 16, 2005 (long term upcycle since May 10, 2004) break down my "Trade the Cycles" system and therefore I will turn bearish. Also, if a major cycle high was occurring, one would expect the gold Commercial Traders to be adding very aggressively (about 30,000-50,000 short futures/options contracts each week as was done near recent major cycle highs) to their short position in recent weeks, yet they've actually had a net long increase the past two weeks (added 2623 short futures/options contracts last week and covered 5276 the prior week) in terms of their short position.
In the monthly downcycle it appears that HUI, NEM, and the XAU could, based on their major upcycle trendlines in the latest 1 year charts, fall to 235-245 (HUI), 45-47 (NEM), and 109-114 (XAU).
Some analysts believe (they're guessing and you can't guess this stuff) that a major top has just occurred, which is unlikely because the prior long term cycle highs in December 2003 (HUI, NEM)/January 2004 (XAU) were just exceeded in this minor intermediate/monthly upcycle (258.60 for HUI on 12-2-03, 50.28 for NEM on 12-2-03, and 113.41 for the XAU on 1-6-04), and, using extrapolation with the prior long term cycle highs since the gold/silver stock Bull Market/very long term upcycle began in late 2000, and the fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively/substantially longer, provides long term cycle high target ranges of 330-350 for HUI, 70-75 for NEM, and 150-160 for the XAU (XAU seems low and may be revised to 160-170) that should be reached in the May 2006 timeframe. If the major intermediate term upcycle trendlines since May 16, 2005 (long term upcycle since May 10, 2004) break down my "Trade the Cycles" system and therefore I will turn bearish. Also, if a major cycle high was occurring, one would expect the gold Commercial Traders to be adding very aggressively (about 30,000-50,000 short futures/options contracts each week as was done near recent major cycle highs) to their short position in recent weeks, yet they've actually had a net long increase the past two weeks (added 2623 short futures/options contracts last week and covered 5276 the prior week) in terms of their short position.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:58 AM
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