................NEM Outperformed The XAU By +0.26% Today
There should be some more downside gap filling action early tomorrow, then a significant rebound should occur that will be an opportunity to short or buy puts. I'll be looking to buy XAU Puts. Following that likely significant rebound tomorrow (after early weakness) most of the remainder of the week should see a substantial decline in HUI, NEM, and the XAU, with monthly/minor int term cycle lows occurring probably late this week or early next week (Monday the 26th the US stock market is closed).
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
2 Comments:
Bill,
If you're afraid of substantial corrections you'll never buy gold/silver stocks. They're very volatile. Garden variety 8-15%ish two weekish monthly/minor intermediate term downcycles occur every month or two. Major multi-month corrections occur after major int term, long term, and very long term upcycles break down. I don't see that happening until May of next year (long term upcycle that began on 5-10-04 is due to end about that time) based on the fact that the long term cycles have been getting longer, so I'm NOT predicting it, I'm simply making an observation.
I can't provide investment advice, so I can't say that long term investors should be buying now, but if this major upcycle lasts until May of next year the next five months or so should be great because upcycles increase in strength over time. You have to make your own investing/trading decisions based on all info sources and advisors you may use. Good luck.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 8:12 PM
Dave,
Cycle trendlines are the primary market timing consideration. The 50 day EMA coincides closely with the past 2 monthly cycle lows but not the major int term cycle low on 5-16-05. To me it's a coincidence and a sample size of two is meaningless. I'll stick with what I know works very well, cycle trendlines. You won't find anything as reliable or effective as cycle trendlines. That's why I don't use moving averages, which are a lagging/trailing indicator. Ciao.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 6:58 AM
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