Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

SPX Might Try to Fill It's Upside Gap at 1116.48 Tomorrow

SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) might try to fill it's upside gap at 1116.48 early tomorrow, and, any gap created at tomorrow's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 


The daily SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) candles suggest that the upcycle since very late Friday is a countertrend Wave B move, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT, and, it appears to be Wave 4 up of the Short Term/Monthly Downcycle since 1-19-10.


The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since very late Friday looks like it'll peak very early tomorrow 2-3-10, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. It looks like the 1073.87, 1069.30 and 1046.50 downside gaps will probably get filled in Wave 5 down of the Short Term Downcycle since 1-19-10. Also, keep in mind the downside gaps at 1025.21 and 1016.40.

 Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.


Market breadth closed positive today (NYSE up vs down volume is incorrect/backwards), which is a bullish indication for early tomorrow/Wednesday 2-3-10, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. The modestly bullish NASDAQ Advance/Decline Ratio is a bearish warning sign. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.


VIX was down -4.91% vs SPX up +1.30% today 2-2-10, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow/Wednesday, because, it's a very sharp +3.61% rise in complacency/-3.61% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX). 

 The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very short term bullish (very bearish indication on a short term basis), since a rapid unusually large rise in complacency occurred since early in yesterday's session, which points to early strength followed by likely severe weakness tomorrow, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.

 The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very short term bullish, since a rapid unusually large rise in complacency occurred since early in yesterday's session, which points to early strength followed by likely severe weakness, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc
The intraday WMT/XOM Lead Indicators closed at bearish/bearish today, see http://bit.ly/bKhNsR.


XOM (Exxon Mobil) appears to be a better SPX/market lead indicator than Walmart (WMT), see five day chart at http://bit.ly/9k8LhW.

 The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bearish at today's close, since WMT's leading to the downside by -1.00% to -1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR. 
The five day XOM (Exxon Mobil) vs SPX Lead Indicator is bullish, since XOM's leading to the upside by +0.50% to +0.99%, see http://bit.ly/5CMSze. Maybe XOM is an even better lead indicator than WMT, since XOM is the highest weighted component of SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) by far (about 3.11%).
Get ready for the VERY bearish three month XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator: see http://bit.ly/8wiAN2.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see http://bit.ly/6Dr79y.
  
Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gap/magnet at 1116.48 early tomorrow, and, any gap created at tomorrow's open. Then, keep in mind SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps/magnets at 1073.87, 1069.30, and 1046.50, see the five day intraday candlestick chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1025.21 and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.


The precious metals sector hit a 5% follow through major sell signal recently (probably did in the week ending 1-22-10), see the XAU's second weekly view candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/aMNz3g. Note that the XAU has broken well below (5%+ below) it's uptrending channel that was in effect since early 2009. 


.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

  

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posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 2:24 PM

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