Edit Update: SPX's Short Term Downcycle Since 1-19-10 Probably Didn't Bottom Early Today

Edit Update: SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Short Term Downcycle since 1-19-10 probably didn't bottom very early today 1-26-10, note the bearish daily candle at http://bit.ly/i0nsT. There was very light Fed Credit today, for the 7th straight day, there's a very bearish 3 month XOM Lead Indicator, as discussed in previous updates, etc.


Edit Update: It's no coincidence that SPX bottomed/put in a session cycle low very soon after filling yesterday's downside gap at 1091.76, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3, and, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.


Edit Update: VIX fell -3.38% vs SPX down -0.42% today 1-26-10, which is a very bearish indication for early tomorrow, because, it's a +3.80% rise in complacency/-3.80% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX).


Edit Update: SPX vs VIX (SPX Wall of Worry) the past two days is an extremely bearish +10%ish rise in complacency, since VIX was down about -10% versus SPX little changed.

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Edit Update: The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is super bullish at today's close, since WMT's leading to the upside by +4.00%+, which is a very short term bearish indication, because, SPX didn't respond well today to an extremely bullish indication.

The five day XOM (Exxon Mobil) vs SPX Lead Indicator is bullish (got strength much of the session), since XOM's leading to the upside by +0.50% to +0.99%, see http://bit.ly/5CMSze. Maybe XOM is an even better lead indicator than WMT, since XOM is the highest weighted component of SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) by far (about 3.11%).


Get ready for the VERY bearish three month XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator: see http://bit.ly/8wiAN2.


Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gap/magnet at 1069.30, see the five day intraday candlestick chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.


Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upside gap/magnet at 1116.48 from 1-22-10's open, once a Short Term Upcycle begins, see the five day intraday candlestick chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.

Edit Update: Market breadth closed substantially negative today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow 1-27-10, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.

Edit Update: Fed Credit was only $4.639 Billion today 1-26/$5.620 Billion yesterday 1-25, it's been very light for the past seven days, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC, and, see the daily update earlier, at the Fed's site at http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/seclend/sec_lendop.cfm.


Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.


Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.


.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/