Fibonacci Targets And SPX's Short Term Downcycle Since Late 1-19-10
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is doing (might have bottomed very late Friday 1-22-10, probably not though) an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (short term downcycle) since very late 1-19-10, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. So, SPX should soon bounce for a day or two+ and do a short term upcycle.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave 1 down move from very late 1-19-10 to early 1-20-10 was about 21 points, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 0.618 times 21 points = Wave 2 up Fibonacci target of 13 points versus the actual move of 12.33 points (1129.25 to 1141.58 from early 1-20-10 to very early 1-21-10), so, SPX hit the Fibonacci target.
Wave 3 down's SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Fibonacci target was 34 points = Wave 1's 21 points times 1.618 (Wave 3s tend to be large relative to Wave 1s) versus the actual move of 36.68 points (1141.58 to 1104.90 from very early 1-21-10 to very early 1-22-10), so, SPX basically hit the Fibonacci target (close enough, also, it's better to hit and exceed the target modestly, than to fall modestly (or well) short of the target), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The brief SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave 4 up move that peaked at 1114.90ish early on Friday 1-22-10 was about 10 points and the Wave 5 down move so far has been nearly 25 points. I'm not sure how to analyze the Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down moves "Fibonacci wise" right now (will update this post if I do), but, SPX's Short Term Downcycle since very late 1-19-10 will probably bottom early on Monday 1-25-10, and, might trigger an important SPX 5% major sell signal (5%+ follow through must occur for a major upcycle sell signal, after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09 (a slightly different later trendline probably makes sense in this case, due to SPX rollover action), before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has probably peaked, and, more importantly, that trading long is risky.).
If I get some insight into the Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down moves "Fibonacci wise" I'll do an edit update to this post. The more one does Fibonacci analysis the better one gets. Ciao.
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave 1 down move from very late 1-19-10 to early 1-20-10 was about 21 points, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 0.618 times 21 points = Wave 2 up Fibonacci target of 13 points versus the actual move of 12.33 points (1129.25 to 1141.58 from early 1-20-10 to very early 1-21-10), so, SPX hit the Fibonacci target.
Wave 3 down's SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Fibonacci target was 34 points = Wave 1's 21 points times 1.618 (Wave 3s tend to be large relative to Wave 1s) versus the actual move of 36.68 points (1141.58 to 1104.90 from very early 1-21-10 to very early 1-22-10), so, SPX basically hit the Fibonacci target (close enough, also, it's better to hit and exceed the target modestly, than to fall modestly (or well) short of the target), see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
The brief SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Wave 4 up move that peaked at 1114.90ish early on Friday 1-22-10 was about 10 points and the Wave 5 down move so far has been nearly 25 points. I'm not sure how to analyze the Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down moves "Fibonacci wise" right now (will update this post if I do), but, SPX's Short Term Downcycle since very late 1-19-10 will probably bottom early on Monday 1-25-10, and, might trigger an important SPX 5% major sell signal (5%+ follow through must occur for a major upcycle sell signal, after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09 (a slightly different later trendline probably makes sense in this case, due to SPX rollover action), before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has probably peaked, and, more importantly, that trading long is risky.).
If I get some insight into the Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down moves "Fibonacci wise" I'll do an edit update to this post. The more one does Fibonacci analysis the better one gets. Ciao.
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:28 AM
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