The Severity of SPX's Decline Since Late 1-19-10 Clearly Suggests That the 1-19-10 Cycle High is an Important One
The severity of SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) decline since late 1-19-10, probably the worst two day decline since the Major Upcycle began on 3-6-09, plus the huge volume spike the past two days, 6.051 (actually a bit more with after hours trading) and 5.452 billion shares vs 60 day EMA at 3.862 billion shares, clearly suggests that the 1-19-10 cycle high is an important one.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycles since 11-2-09 and 12-9-09 have obviously probably peaked (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns), and, there's a good chance that the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 has peaked.
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I haven't tried yet to figure out why the formatting is screwed up now. Blogger updated their system some, which caused the change.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart looks bearish at session's end, and, SPX closed near the session cycle low, which usually points to early weakness, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
Also, VIX closed up +22.63% today 1-22-10, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, because, it's a bearish rapid unusually large rise in fear, as yesterday's +19.22% rise was.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is doing (might have bottomed very late today) an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (short term downcycle) since very late 1-19-10, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. So, SPX should soon bounce for a day or two and do a short term upcycle.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is/closed at extremely bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +2.00% to +3.99%, which obviously jives with an SPX short term upcycle occurring soon, but, tends to be a very short term bearish indication (became extremely bullish because SPX didn't respond well to a bullish WMT Lead Indicator).
The 1114.05 and 1102.47 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps got filled, now watch/keep in mind the 1116.48 upside gap from today's open, once a short term upcycle begins, and, the 1150.23 upside gap is probably a bearish breakaway gap, but, must obviously be kept in mind.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) next downside gap/magnet is at 1069.30, see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
Fed Credit was very light the past five days and the market became very weak, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC. Coincidence? Probably not, though SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was due to turn down cyclewise.
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 1-19-10, rose in recent months thanks to massive liquidity from the Fed). Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking. A major/very large price and volume blowoff type of spike move is likely when SPX puts in a Major Cycle high.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycles since 11-2-09 and 12-9-09 have obviously probably peaked (Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns), and, there's a good chance that the Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 has peaked.
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I haven't tried yet to figure out why the formatting is screwed up now. Blogger updated their system some, which caused the change.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) intraday candlestick chart looks bearish at session's end, and, SPX closed near the session cycle low, which usually points to early weakness, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
Also, VIX closed up +22.63% today 1-22-10, which is a bearish indication for early tomorrow/Monday, because, it's a bearish rapid unusually large rise in fear, as yesterday's +19.22% rise was.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is doing (might have bottomed very late today) an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern (short term downcycle) since very late 1-19-10, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. So, SPX should soon bounce for a day or two and do a short term upcycle.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is/closed at extremely bullish, since WMT's leading to the upside by +2.00% to +3.99%, which obviously jives with an SPX short term upcycle occurring soon, but, tends to be a very short term bearish indication (became extremely bullish because SPX didn't respond well to a bullish WMT Lead Indicator).
The 1114.05 and 1102.47 SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps got filled, now watch/keep in mind the 1116.48 upside gap from today's open, once a short term upcycle begins, and, the 1150.23 upside gap is probably a bearish breakaway gap, but, must obviously be kept in mind.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) next downside gap/magnet is at 1069.30, see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
Fed Credit was very light the past five days and the market became very weak, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC. Coincidence? Probably not, though SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was due to turn down cyclewise.
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 early tomorrow, watch/keep in mind the 1116.48 upside gap from today's open the next day or two, and, any gap that might be created at tomorrow's/Monday's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 1-19-10, rose in recent months thanks to massive liquidity from the Fed). Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking. A major/very large price and volume blowoff type of spike move is likely when SPX puts in a Major Cycle high.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:31 PM
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