SPX's Upcycles Since 11-2-09 & 12-9-09 (EW 12345 Patterns) Probably Peaked Tuesday 1-19-10
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycles since 11-2-09 and 12-9-09 (Elliott Wave 12345 patterns) probably peaked on Tuesday 1-19-10, see http://bit.ly/i0nsT. SPX put in a very bearish triple top in the prior seven sessions.
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I haven't tried yet to figure out why the formatting is screwed up now. Blogger updated their system some, which caused the change.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a massive 6.051 billion shares today 1-21-10 versus the 60 day EMA at 3.807 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, it appears that the big money was exiting in a big way today.
SPX's intraday candlestick chart looks bearish at session's end, and, SPX closed near the session cycle low, which usually points to early weakness, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
Fed Credit was very light the past four days and the market became very weak, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC. Coincidence? Probably not, though SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was due to turn down cyclewise.
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 1-19-10, rose in recent months thanks to massive liquidity from the Fed). Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking. A major/very large price and volume blowoff type of spike move is likely when SPX puts in a Major Cycle high.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
A Fibonacci 0.618 retrace of the -909.30 point decline from 1576.09 on 10-11-07 to 666.79 on 3-6-09 puts SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) at 1228.55 (Major Cycle High "target." I'm skeptical of it's validity in this case, partly because of massive Fed Credit/Quantitative Easing in recent months).
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a well above average 4.387 billion shares on 1-15-10 vs the 60 day EMA at 3.708 billion shares, which was a bearish indication, because, the big money probably was exiting in a major way. Usually, an important cycle high/price spike will be accompanied/"confirmed" by a major volume spike.
There's been massive Fed Credit/Quantitative Easing recently (prior to the past four days), see http://bit.ly/wQNYC
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in 5 day period ending 1-20-10, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$3.570 Billion in the five day period ending 1-6-10 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases (trends up over months), which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Given the massive amount of Fed Credit (Quantitative Easing) in recent days, weeks, and months one simply can't fight Bubbles Bernanke and the Fed for now. Bubbles Bernanke might be the Trade the Cycles Blog Goat of the Year in 2010. Stay tuned.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is bearish, since WMT's leading to the downside by -0.50% to -0.99%.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see http://bit.ly/6Dr79y
Get ready for the (short term bearish now) XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see http://bit.ly/8wiAN2
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) pattern of doing a brief pop very early on followed by a fizzle nearly EVERY DAY continues (probably the big boys/program traders bidding the market up very early every day, then they dump it on the lemmings), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3
Massive Quantitative Easing in recent months, liquidity injected into the financial system, accounts for market strength recently.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases, which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication.
Fed Credit rose a massive +$75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) session cycle low occurred on 12-28-09shortly after filling the 1126.48 downside gap from the open,see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX session cycle low occurred at 1116.00 on 12-23-09, very soon after filling the 1118.02downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is bearish, since WMT's leading to the downside by -0.50% to -0.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at slightly bullish (+0.00% to +0.24% vs SPX) today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish, since a huge spike/rapid unusually large rise in fear occurred today, see http://bit.ly/vryF4
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish, since a huge spike/rapid unusually large rise in fear occurred today, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc
VIX was up +19.22% vs SPX falling -1.89% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Friday 1-22-10, because, it's a rapid unusually large +17.33% rise in fear/+17.33% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, some significant/potentially severe weakness is likely early on Friday.
Market breadth closed at clearly negative today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Friday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is very bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=%5Evix
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks/months that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is/was a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Follow me on Twitter (highly recommended), see http://twitter.com/tradethecycles.
I haven't tried yet to figure out why the formatting is screwed up now. Blogger updated their system some, which caused the change.
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a massive 6.051 billion shares today 1-21-10 versus the 60 day EMA at 3.807 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, it appears that the big money was exiting in a big way today.
SPX's intraday candlestick chart looks bearish at session's end, and, SPX closed near the session cycle low, which usually points to early weakness, see http://bit.ly/12SpXH.
Fed Credit was very light the past four days and the market became very weak, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC. Coincidence? Probably not, though SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) was due to turn down cyclewise.
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive), see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
SPX's upside gap/magnet at 1150.23 from yesterday 1-20-10's open is probably a bearish breakaway gap, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) will probably try to fill the downside gap/magnet at (1115.10 filled today) 1114.05 (possibly 1102.47 also) early tomorrow, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. A session cycle low will probably occur shortly after gap filling action is completed (timewise and usually also pricewise). Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.
Trading Roadmap: WATCH (early tomorrow and the next few days) SPX's downside gaps/magnets at 1114.05 and 1102.47, and, any gap that might be created at tomorrow's/Friday's open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Major Upcycle since 3-6-09 is probably peaking (possibly peaked on 1-19-10, rose in recent months thanks to massive liquidity from the Fed). Chart one at http://bit.ly/18T7lw shows SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) Elliott Wave count since 3-6-09, which suggests that the Major Intermediate Term Upcycle since 3-6-09 is peaking. A major/very large price and volume blowoff type of spike move is likely when SPX puts in a Major Cycle high.
Keep in mind that 5%+ follow through must occur (for a major upcycle sell signal), after breaking the uptrend line since 3-6-09, before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that SPX has very likely peaked.
A Fibonacci 0.618 retrace of the -909.30 point decline from 1576.09 on 10-11-07 to 666.79 on 3-6-09 puts SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) at 1228.55 (Major Cycle High "target." I'm skeptical of it's validity in this case, partly because of massive Fed Credit/Quantitative Easing in recent months).
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a well above average 4.387 billion shares on 1-15-10 vs the 60 day EMA at 3.708 billion shares, which was a bearish indication, because, the big money probably was exiting in a major way. Usually, an important cycle high/price spike will be accompanied/"confirmed" by a major volume spike.
There's been massive Fed Credit/Quantitative Easing recently (prior to the past four days), see http://bit.ly/wQNYC
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in 5 day period ending 1-20-10, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$9.339 Billion in 5 day period ending 1-13-10, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit fell a significant -$3.570 Billion in the five day period ending 1-6-10 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases (trends up over months), which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which is a bearish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Given the massive amount of Fed Credit (Quantitative Easing) in recent days, weeks, and months one simply can't fight Bubbles Bernanke and the Fed for now. Bubbles Bernanke might be the Trade the Cycles Blog Goat of the Year in 2010. Stay tuned.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is bearish, since WMT's leading to the downside by -0.50% to -0.99%.
Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see http://bit.ly/6Dr79y
Get ready for the (short term bearish now) XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator, see http://bit.ly/8wiAN2
SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) pattern of doing a brief pop very early on followed by a fizzle nearly EVERY DAY continues (probably the big boys/program traders bidding the market up very early every day, then they dump it on the lemmings), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3
Massive Quantitative Easing in recent months, liquidity injected into the financial system, accounts for market strength recently.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09 (Called "Quantitative Easing" when Fed Credit increases, which is a fancy way of saying that liquidity is being injected into the financial system/markets, which is obviously an inflationary easy money policy), which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which was/is a bullish indication.
Fed Credit rose a massive +$75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) session cycle low occurred on 12-28-09shortly after filling the 1126.48 downside gap from the open,see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
It's not a coincidence that an SPX session cycle low occurred at 1116.00 on 12-23-09, very soon after filling the 1118.02downside gap from the open, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 Gaps have a strong tendency to provide a trading roadmap.
SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) has another downside gap/magnet at 1069.30 (after 1114.05 and 1102.47), see the five day intraday candlestick day chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3 1046.50, 1025.21, and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that.
The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is bearish, since WMT's leading to the downside by -0.50% to -0.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR
The intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is/closed at slightly bullish (+0.00% to +0.24% vs SPX) today, see http://bit.ly/88OBwn
The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish, since a huge spike/rapid unusually large rise in fear occurred today, see http://bit.ly/vryF4
The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very bearish, since a huge spike/rapid unusually large rise in fear occurred today, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc
VIX was up +19.22% vs SPX falling -1.89% today, which is a very bearish indication for early Friday 1-22-10, because, it's a rapid unusually large +17.33% rise in fear/+17.33% rise in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) today, so, some significant/potentially severe weakness is likely early on Friday.
Market breadth closed at clearly negative today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bearish indication for early Friday, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.
The six month broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator is super bearish, see http://bit.ly/nCMaM SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT)/the market and nearly all sectors, stocks, and commodities (like the gold and energy sectors) are likely to get savaged over the next 6 to 12 months.
Also, the three month SPX (S & P 500) Wall of Worry chart is very bearish (keep in mind that it's basically a lead indicator), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,p12,fs,p12,fs,w14&c=%5Evix
Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action. When a gap/magnet gets filled, look for a session cycle high or a session cycle low to probably occur shortly thereafter (timewise and usually also pricewise). We've seen many times in the past few weeks/months that a session cycle high or low has occurred very soon after a gap got filled.
Often important and even not so important cycle highs or lows occur shortly after (both timewise and pricewise) gap filling action is completed.
A factor recently/now is that Fed Credit rose a substantial +$23.723 Billion in the five day period ending 12-23-09, which was/is a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a substantial +$22.764 Billion in the five day period ending 12-16-09, which is/was a bullish indication, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds.
Fed Credit rose a massive $75.680 Billion in the five day period ending 11-18-09. This was another successful attempt by Space Shuttle Bernanke to prop up the market for a while.
NDX (NASDAQ 100) looks like it's peaking (major upcycle that began in November 2008), see http://bit.ly/73BXOt
The precious metals sector appears to/might have finally peaked in early December 2009, see the Blog post from 12-19-09 at http://bit.ly/6Kl4GQ.
As discussed previously, SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) is heavily market cap weighted, with 4% of the components (20) accounting for nearly 33% of the movement, and, with less than 10% of the components (47) accounting for slightly over 50% of the movement.
Much of the SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) strength in recent months has been due to a relatively small number of large cap giants like XOM/Exxon (accounts for over 3% of SPX's movements, which is by far the largest weighting) and GOOG/Google doing well.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
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