Daily SPX Candles Suggest Upcycle Since Friday is a Countertrend Wave B Move

The daily SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) candles suggest that the upcycle since very late Friday is a countertrend Wave B move, see the daily candlestick chart http://bit.ly/i0nsT. 

The SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) upcycle since very late Friday looks like it'll peak very early tomorrow 2-2-10, see the five day intraday candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. It looks like the 1073.87, 1069.30 and 1046.50 downside gaps will probably get filled in Wave 5 down of the Short Term Downcycle since 1-19-10. Also, keep in mind the downside gaps at 1025.21 and 1016.40.

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Friday's daily SPX candle is pretty bearish, see the daily candlestick chart at http://bit.ly/i0nsT. 

VIX was down -8.25% vs SPX up +1.43% today 2-1-10, which is a very short term (early tomorrow) bullish indication (very bearish indication on a short term basis), because, it's a rapid unusually large +6.82% rise in complacency/-6.82% decline in the SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX). 

The five day intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very short term bullish, since a rapid unusually large rise in complacency occurred since early in today's session, which points to very early strength followed by likely severe weakness, see http://bit.ly/vryF4.

The intraday SPX Wall of Worry (SPX vs VIX) is very short term bullish, since a rapid unusually large rise in complacency occurred since early in today's session, which points to very early strength followed by likely severe weakness, see http://bit.ly/UTZwc

The intraday WMT/XOM Lead Indicators closed at very bearish/slightly bullish today, see http://bit.ly/bKhNsR.

The five day SPX vs Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) chart at http://bit.ly/4t6GS9 is very bullish at today's close, since WMT's leading to the upside by +1.00% to +1.99%. For the five day intraday broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator that includes HUI for gold bugs, see http://bit.ly/5zScR. 

The five day XOM (Exxon Mobil) vs SPX Lead Indicator is very bullish, since XOM's leading to the upside by +1.00% to +1.99%, see http://bit.ly/5CMSze. Maybe XOM is an even better lead indicator than WMT, since XOM is the highest weighted component of SPX (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) by far (about 3.11%).

Get ready for the VERY bearish three month XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator: see http://bit.ly/8wiAN2.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), by far the most heavily weighted SPX component (3.11%), has a bearish breakaway gap and an ugly chart, see http://bit.ly/6Dr79y.

Trading Roadmap: WATCH SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) downside gaps/magnets at 1073.87, 1069.30, and 1046.50 (and any gap created at tomorrow's open), see the five day intraday candlestick chart http://bit.ly/3qGxf3. 1025.21 and 1016.40 are the downside gaps after that. Much of the time SPX is simply engaged in gap filling action.

SPX's (S & P 500, http://bit.ly/i0nsT) volume was a well below average 3.560 billion shares today 2-1-10 versus the 60 day EMA at 3.968 billion shares, which is a bearish indication, because, the big money wasn't chasing today's significant strength in a meaningful way, which jives with weakness occurring tomorrow/Tuesday, after likely very early strength.

The precious metals sector hit a 5% follow through major sell signal recently, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2010/01/precious-metals-sector-hit-5-follow.html.

Market breadth closed very positive today (NYSE up vs down volume is/appears to be correct), which is a bullish indication for early tomorrow/Tuesday 2-2-10, see http://bit.ly/lPIyW. Cycles/Elliott Wave patterns/gaps are the primary considerations.

Fed Credit was only $6.408 Billion today 2-1/$5.635 Billion on 1-29/$5.670 Billion on 1-28/$4.093 Billion on 1-27/$4.639 Billion on 1-26/$5.620 Billion on 1-25, it's been very light for the past eleven days, see http://bit.ly/wQNYC, and, see the daily update earlier, at the Fed's site at http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/seclend/sec_lendop.cfm.

Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$3.827 Billion in the five day period ending 1-27-10, see http://bit.ly/Ys2ds. So, Bernanke's still getting weekly positive deltas/changes in Fed Credit.

Fed Credit rose a significant/bullish +$5.144 Billion in the five day period ending 1-20-10 (The Fed bought a massive $49.377 Billion of Mortgage-Backed Securities, causing the weekly delta/change to be positive).

Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.



.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/


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