UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) Look Good On Monday And A New Annotated NDX (NASDAQ 100) Chart
Check out the new (done today) annotated NDX chart, chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Sometimes a picture is worth more than a thousand words or any number of words.
UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid) look good on Monday, since they have a near perfect bullish double bottom at 40.63 in July and 40.64 on 9-19, with a triple bottom on Friday 9-21 at 40.74.
This jives with NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably putting in a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high in July (cycle began October 2002) and a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high on 9-19 slightly below July's cycle high, see the new (done today) annotated NDX chart, chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. As annotated on the new daily NDX chart Thursday's decline looks like a Wave A down type move, Friday's rally looks like a Wave B up, so, on Monday a Wave C down type move is likely.
On Friday NDX (NASDAQ 100) was very flat for much of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENDX&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, has a very bearish intraday quintuple top, and, looks like it'll be weak early on Monday, which jives with the Elliott Wave count discussed in the previous paragraph.
If NDX fills (as expected) Tuesday's downside gap at 1983.08 sometime in the next few sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, that will probably trigger a 2% follow through sell signal (break 2%+ below the support uptrend line), which will confirm that Wednesday 9-19's cycle high was a countertrend Wave B cycle high for the cycle that began 8-16-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (NDX also) probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The WMT Lead Indicator is mostly bearish recently, at -0.65% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-21, at -0.29% versus on 9-20, +0.09% on 9-19, -0.33% on 9-18, at +0.51% on 9-17, at +0.58% on 9-14, at -0.02% on 9-13, at -0.55% on 9-12, at +0.23% on 9-11, at -0.15% on 9-10, at +0.82% on 9-7, at +0.30% on 9-6, at -0.81% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX/NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) soon entering Wave C of their major downcycle since the July cycle high (probably did on 9-19).
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did on 9-19), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Note that in the likely Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
For you gold/silver bugs (I will be again once the Bear Market since 5-11-06 ends) it's very important to see the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/gold-traders-who-know-what-theyre-doing.html. Nearly all of the dingbat gold writers are getting giddy near a very important cycle high, that probably occurred yesterday/9-21.
Let's pop the Champagne, HUI is up +0.14% in 16 months (401.69 on 5-11-06 to 402.27 on 9-21-07)! XAU is up +0.85% in 16 months (171.71 on 5-11-06 to 173.17 on 9-21-07)! Wow! If it wasn't for the huge spike from 8-16-07 to 9-21-07 HUI/XAU would still be down/wouldn't have exceeded their 5-11-06 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs.
There are very few gold writers I can read (that are worth reading), and, even some that I read it's mostly for the amusement or curiosity factor. I've had a lot of laughs since 5-11-06. There are some real oddballs and losers in the gold sector. In some cases they don't realize how obvious it is that they have an agenda and are spewing propaganda, and, how easy it is to see through it. Most people know garbage when they see it and know the real deal when they see it. Many gold writers get arrogant and giddy near important cycle highs. Arrogance and giddiness don't jive with trading and investing.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid) look good on Monday, since they have a near perfect bullish double bottom at 40.63 in July and 40.64 on 9-19, with a triple bottom on Friday 9-21 at 40.74.
This jives with NDX (NASDAQ 100) probably putting in a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high in July (cycle began October 2002) and a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high on 9-19 slightly below July's cycle high, see the new (done today) annotated NDX chart, chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. As annotated on the new daily NDX chart Thursday's decline looks like a Wave A down type move, Friday's rally looks like a Wave B up, so, on Monday a Wave C down type move is likely.
On Friday NDX (NASDAQ 100) was very flat for much of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ENDX&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, has a very bearish intraday quintuple top, and, looks like it'll be weak early on Monday, which jives with the Elliott Wave count discussed in the previous paragraph.
If NDX fills (as expected) Tuesday's downside gap at 1983.08 sometime in the next few sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, that will probably trigger a 2% follow through sell signal (break 2%+ below the support uptrend line), which will confirm that Wednesday 9-19's cycle high was a countertrend Wave B cycle high for the cycle that began 8-16-07, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market (NDX also) probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The WMT Lead Indicator is mostly bearish recently, at -0.65% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-21, at -0.29% versus on 9-20, +0.09% on 9-19, -0.33% on 9-18, at +0.51% on 9-17, at +0.58% on 9-14, at -0.02% on 9-13, at -0.55% on 9-12, at +0.23% on 9-11, at -0.15% on 9-10, at +0.82% on 9-7, at +0.30% on 9-6, at -0.81% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX/NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) soon entering Wave C of their major downcycle since the July cycle high (probably did on 9-19).
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did on 9-19), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Note that in the likely Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
For you gold/silver bugs (I will be again once the Bear Market since 5-11-06 ends) it's very important to see the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/gold-traders-who-know-what-theyre-doing.html. Nearly all of the dingbat gold writers are getting giddy near a very important cycle high, that probably occurred yesterday/9-21.
Let's pop the Champagne, HUI is up +0.14% in 16 months (401.69 on 5-11-06 to 402.27 on 9-21-07)! XAU is up +0.85% in 16 months (171.71 on 5-11-06 to 173.17 on 9-21-07)! Wow! If it wasn't for the huge spike from 8-16-07 to 9-21-07 HUI/XAU would still be down/wouldn't have exceeded their 5-11-06 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs.
There are very few gold writers I can read (that are worth reading), and, even some that I read it's mostly for the amusement or curiosity factor. I've had a lot of laughs since 5-11-06. There are some real oddballs and losers in the gold sector. In some cases they don't realize how obvious it is that they have an agenda and are spewing propaganda, and, how easy it is to see through it. Most people know garbage when they see it and know the real deal when they see it. Many gold writers get arrogant and giddy near important cycle highs. Arrogance and giddiness don't jive with trading and investing.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:47 AM
