Annotated NDX (NASDAQ 100) Chart With Elliott Wave Count And Support
I just did a new annotated NDX (NASDAQ 100) chart with the likely Elliott Wave count and the support trendline, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. One has to/should wait for support to break down before trading aggressively short. The NDX (NASDAQ 100) Wave C cycle low target range is 1700-1750, well below the Wave A cycle low that occurred on 8-16 at 1805.66.
If the Elliott Wave count is correct then NDX is in Wave C of Wave A of the big Wave C downcycle since 9-4-07, as annotated in chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
I didn't realize that the chart was logarithmic (one should always use linear charts, which reflect reality), so, today's/9-17 cycle low is actually a bit farther from support than the chart shows, but, there isn't a big difference with the linear chart.
In chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see SPX's (S & P 500) big picture chart that's similar to NDX's (NASDAQ 100), and, is why NDX/SPX probably put in Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs in July, for the Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002.
The dramatic SPX Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal (see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90.
As noted in chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html the anemic NDX/SPX countertrend Wave B of the big Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high to 8-16's cycle low (SPX managed to rally only two days) indicates that the downcycle until 8-16 is probably just a Wave A downcycle.
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX having entered a big Wave C downcycle on 9-4-07, that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
If the Elliott Wave count is correct then NDX is in Wave C of Wave A of the big Wave C downcycle since 9-4-07, as annotated in chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
I didn't realize that the chart was logarithmic (one should always use linear charts, which reflect reality), so, today's/9-17 cycle low is actually a bit farther from support than the chart shows, but, there isn't a big difference with the linear chart.
In chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html one can see SPX's (S & P 500) big picture chart that's similar to NDX's (NASDAQ 100), and, is why NDX/SPX probably put in Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs in July, for the Cyclical Bull Market that began in October 2002.
The dramatic SPX Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal (see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90.
As noted in chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html the anemic NDX/SPX countertrend Wave B of the big Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high to 8-16's cycle low (SPX managed to rally only two days) indicates that the downcycle until 8-16 is probably just a Wave A downcycle.
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX having entered a big Wave C downcycle on 9-4-07, that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:16 PM
