NDX's (NASDAQ 100) Very Short Term Wave B Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked
NDX's (NASDAQ 100) very short term countertrend Wave B type upcycle (Wave B of Wave A of the big Wave C downcycle since 9-4-07) since early Monday appears to have peaked early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. NDX's uptrend since early Monday broke down late today. NDX did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle after peaking early today, so, I'll be looking to buy QID early tomorrow, since NDX is likely to rebound some.
Today's bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -0.55% vs SPX (S & P 500), jives with my looking to buy the UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) tomorrow, that appear to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle on Tuesday 9-4, see chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish recently, at -0.55% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 9-12, at +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-11, at -0.15% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-10, at +0.82% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-7, at +0.30% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-6, at -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX/NDX having entered Wave C (on 9-4-07) of their major downcycle since the July cycle high at 1555.90.
See the previous post (today's first post) at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/ndx-nasdaq-100-filled-fridays-upside.html for all the details.
The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.02% versus the XAU today/on 9-12, +0.25% versus the XAU on 9-11, -0.69% versus the XAU on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -6.01% versus the XAU the past ten sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Gold's Wave B of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 surprised to the upside the past week, see charts 1 and 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD, taking out April's cycle high at $698 that appeared to be the Wave B cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high that occurred at $730.40 on 5-11-06). The huge spike move is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs, and, Wave B may peak this week.
Most of the amateur wannabe gold analysts (some were just born into rich families and are pretending to be gold "gurus") have led and continue to lead most people to a financial disaster. There are far too many dingbats pretending to be gold analysts/timers in the gold/silver sector.
Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $730.40 on 5-11-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD. From April 2007 until today gold managed to rise about 3% in five months, which is obviously not a Bull Market uptrend. Only a gold "guru" would think that's a Bull Market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Today's bearish WMT Lead Indicator, at -0.55% vs SPX (S & P 500), jives with my looking to buy the UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) tomorrow, that appear to have completed an Elliott Wave ABC down up down monthly downcycle on Tuesday 9-4, see chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish recently, at -0.55% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 9-12, at +0.23% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-11, at -0.15% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-10, at +0.82% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-7, at +0.30% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-6, at -0.81% versus SPX (S & P 500) on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX/NDX having entered Wave C (on 9-4-07) of their major downcycle since the July cycle high at 1555.90.
See the previous post (today's first post) at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/ndx-nasdaq-100-filled-fridays-upside.html for all the details.
The NEM Lead Indicator = +0.02% versus the XAU today/on 9-12, +0.25% versus the XAU on 9-11, -0.69% versus the XAU on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -6.01% versus the XAU the past ten sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Gold's Wave B of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 surprised to the upside the past week, see charts 1 and 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD, taking out April's cycle high at $698 that appeared to be the Wave B cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high that occurred at $730.40 on 5-11-06). The huge spike move is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs, and, Wave B may peak this week.
Most of the amateur wannabe gold analysts (some were just born into rich families and are pretending to be gold "gurus") have led and continue to lead most people to a financial disaster. There are far too many dingbats pretending to be gold analysts/timers in the gold/silver sector.
Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $730.40 on 5-11-06, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD. From April 2007 until today gold managed to rise about 3% in five months, which is obviously not a Bull Market uptrend. Only a gold "guru" would think that's a Bull Market.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:01 PM
