Gold's Wave B Of It's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market Since 5-11-06 Surprised To The Upside
Gold's Wave B of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 surprised to the upside, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD, taking out April's cycle high at $698 that appeared to be the Wave B cycle high. This week's huge spike move is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs, and, Wave B may have peaked this week or should do so early next week.
Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $730.40, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD. From April 2007 until today gold has managed to rise a little over 1% in about five months, which is obviously not a Bull Market uptrend. Only a gold "guru" would think that's a Bull Market.
Also, fundamentally, the current deflationary real estate/mortgage bust is a major negative for gold, just as the inflationary real estate/mortgage boom from 2002-2006 was a major positive for gold, coinciding with gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006. Gold does well in inflationary economic cycles and gold does poorly in deflationary economic cycles, which is pretty basic stuff that a true gold analyst would understand.
The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively net short in the latest Commitments Of Traders (COT) data for the five day period ending 9-4-07, and, the clueless gold Speculators traded aggressively net long, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, which is a very bearish sign.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Wave A bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006 and the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at $730.40, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$GOLD. From April 2007 until today gold has managed to rise a little over 1% in about five months, which is obviously not a Bull Market uptrend. Only a gold "guru" would think that's a Bull Market.
Also, fundamentally, the current deflationary real estate/mortgage bust is a major negative for gold, just as the inflationary real estate/mortgage boom from 2002-2006 was a major positive for gold, coinciding with gold's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006. Gold does well in inflationary economic cycles and gold does poorly in deflationary economic cycles, which is pretty basic stuff that a true gold analyst would understand.
The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively net short in the latest Commitments Of Traders (COT) data for the five day period ending 9-4-07, and, the clueless gold Speculators traded aggressively net long, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, which is a very bearish sign.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:50 PM
