Anatomy Of A Likely NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) Blip
The July NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) cycle highs/likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs for the cycle that began in October 2002 (see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) held today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, with NDX more closely approaching it's July cycle high than SPX.
There was minimal NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) follow through both timewise and pricewise after the huge spike move that occurred in the 25 minutes following yesterday's half point rate cut, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The post rate cut rally was basically a half session (about 3-4 hours) blip (probably ended early today).
Today's early NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) cycle highs are probably countertrend Wave B cycle highs for the cycle that began 8-16-07. NDX's (NASDAQ 100)/SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B now have Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns on their daily charts, and, Wave B appears to have peaked early today.
NDX is trying to fill today's downside gap at
2035.37 right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, there's a downside gap created yesterday at 1983.08.
Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did early today), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
HUI/XAU's Wave B of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably peaked today, and, they should head down to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since late 2000) trendlines at 220ish and 90ish in the next 3-6 months, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Gold should head down to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) trendline at $475-500 in the next 3-6 months.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
There was minimal NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) follow through both timewise and pricewise after the huge spike move that occurred in the 25 minutes following yesterday's half point rate cut, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. The post rate cut rally was basically a half session (about 3-4 hours) blip (probably ended early today).
Today's early NDX (NASDAQ 100)/SPX (S & P 500) cycle highs are probably countertrend Wave B cycle highs for the cycle that began 8-16-07. NDX's (NASDAQ 100)/SPX's (S & P 500) countertrend Wave B now have Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up patterns on their daily charts, and, Wave B appears to have peaked early today.
NDX is trying to fill today's downside gap at
2035.37 right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Endx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, there's a downside gap created yesterday at 1983.08.
Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did early today), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
HUI/XAU's Wave B of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 probably peaked today, and, they should head down to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since late 2000) trendlines at 220ish and 90ish in the next 3-6 months, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Gold should head down to it's primary multi year Secular Bull Market (since April 2001) trendline at $475-500 in the next 3-6 months.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:50 AM
