.........The WMT And NEM Lead Indicators
The WMT Lead Indicator is mostly bearish recently, at -0.33% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 9-18, at +0.51% on 9-17, at +0.58% on 9-14, at -0.02% on 9-13, at -0.55% on 9-12, at +0.23% on 9-11, at -0.15% on 9-10, at +0.82% on 9-7, at +0.30% on 9-6, at -0.81% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX/NDX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx) soon entering Wave C of their major downcycle since the July cycle high.
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle, that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
The NEM Lead Indicator is SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -2.33% versus the XAU today/on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -10.09% versus the XAU the past 14 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with NDX/SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle, that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for NDX/SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
The NEM Lead Indicator is SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -2.33% versus the XAU today/on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -10.09% versus the XAU the past 14 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Note that in the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
4:04 PM
