HUI/NEM/XAU's Very Short Term Countertrend Wave B Probably Peaked Today
HUI/NEM/XAU's very short term countertrend Wave B (began early on Monday) probably peaked today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Reliable lead indicator NEM has a bearish triple top the past two days, with yesterday's double top cycle high at 43.52 and today's cycle high at 43.53. Also, HUI/NEM/XAU appear to have completed an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern today.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.26% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Since the NEM Lead Indicator didn't become less bearish near session's end, it doesn't look like there will be much strength early tomorrow.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.02% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, was a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=WMT&l=off&z=l&q=l&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
NEM and the XAU will probably fill their downside gaps at 42.48 and 129.28 tomorrow. NEM may also fill it's downside gap at 41.83 tomorrow.
I bought some April 120 XAU puts today at 1.50. Tomorrow I'll look to short some GDX (Gold Miners ETF) on strength.
The XAU has a downside gap at 129.28. NEM has downside gaps at 42.48, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 136.66, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
It looks like NEM will/may fill all of it's downside gaps in the next few days, and, NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle since 2-22-07 (cycle high at 48.33) should bottom shortly after filling the last downside gap at 40.83 (at 40.50ish). 10-4-06's cycle low at 39.84 should hold, because NEM bounced right at it's primary Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, indicating that reliable lead indicator NEM probably entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06.
A scenario I've discussed many times (but not recently) before is that HUI/XAU's Wave A down of their major downcycle since 2-23-07 should closely coincide with NEM's minor intermediate term cycle low at 40.50ish. Then the Wave B should closely coincide with Wave 1 of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle, followed by the final Wave C of HUI/XAU's major downcycle since 2-23-07 probably closely coinciding with Wave 2 down of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle.
XAU Implied Volatility revealed one of the largest one day spikes in fear I've ever seen, rising +48.28% to 41.280 on 3-5 from 27.840 on 3-2, which points to substantial weakness in the near future, because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear that portends weakness in the near future.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/huinemxaus-very-short-term-countertrend.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.74% versus the XAU today, and, was a very bearish -1.26% versus the XAU yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. Since the NEM Lead Indicator didn't become less bearish near session's end, it doesn't look like there will be much strength early tomorrow.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.02% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, was a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=WMT&l=off&z=l&q=l&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
NEM and the XAU will probably fill their downside gaps at 42.48 and 129.28 tomorrow. NEM may also fill it's downside gap at 41.83 tomorrow.
I bought some April 120 XAU puts today at 1.50. Tomorrow I'll look to short some GDX (Gold Miners ETF) on strength.
The XAU has a downside gap at 129.28. NEM has downside gaps at 42.48, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 136.66, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU. Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
It looks like NEM will/may fill all of it's downside gaps in the next few days, and, NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle since 2-22-07 (cycle high at 48.33) should bottom shortly after filling the last downside gap at 40.83 (at 40.50ish). 10-4-06's cycle low at 39.84 should hold, because NEM bounced right at it's primary Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, indicating that reliable lead indicator NEM probably entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06.
A scenario I've discussed many times (but not recently) before is that HUI/XAU's Wave A down of their major downcycle since 2-23-07 should closely coincide with NEM's minor intermediate term cycle low at 40.50ish. Then the Wave B should closely coincide with Wave 1 of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle, followed by the final Wave C of HUI/XAU's major downcycle since 2-23-07 probably closely coinciding with Wave 2 down of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle.
XAU Implied Volatility revealed one of the largest one day spikes in fear I've ever seen, rising +48.28% to 41.280 on 3-5 from 27.840 on 3-2, which points to substantial weakness in the near future, because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear that portends weakness in the near future.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/huinemxaus-very-short-term-countertrend.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:15 PM
