Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Appeared To Be In An Intraday Wave C At Session's End
Reliable lead indicator NEM appeared to be in an intraday Wave C at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. After the plunge at the open NEM did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle for two hours, followed by a brief Wave A down and a two hour Wave B up, with the late session weakness probably being an intraday Wave C. If so, NEM should bottom early tomorrow well below the intraday Wave A cycle low at 42.35ish.
HUI/XAU may not have begun a short term countertrend Wave B today, if early weakness occurs tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Reliable lead indicator NEM is more likely to have begun a short term countertrend Wave B today.
Obviously this is a very treacherous environment to trade long in, and, sitting on the sidelines today made sense to me. If the lead indicators are bullish tomorrow I may look to day trade long or even hold overnight (difficult to imagine right now).
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.01% versus the XAU today, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.23% versus the S & P 500 today.
NEM/XAU should fill upside gaps at 44.53 and 45.10 for NEM, and, at 136.66 and 139.66 for the XAU, in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle. NEM's upside gap at 47.06 and the XAU 's upside gap at 147.75 should be bearish breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until later on, but, since reliable lead indicator NEM probably began a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, if there is an upside surprise, it should be by NEM.
There should be another good/potentially great opportunity to "get your shorts on" this week or next.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/it-looks-like-huinemxau-short-term.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU may not have begun a short term countertrend Wave B today, if early weakness occurs tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Reliable lead indicator NEM is more likely to have begun a short term countertrend Wave B today.
Obviously this is a very treacherous environment to trade long in, and, sitting on the sidelines today made sense to me. If the lead indicators are bullish tomorrow I may look to day trade long or even hold overnight (difficult to imagine right now).
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.01% versus the XAU today, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a modestly bullish +0.23% versus the S & P 500 today.
NEM/XAU should fill upside gaps at 44.53 and 45.10 for NEM, and, at 136.66 and 139.66 for the XAU, in the short term countertrend Wave B upcycle. NEM's upside gap at 47.06 and the XAU 's upside gap at 147.75 should be bearish breakaway gaps to the downside that won't get filled until later on, but, since reliable lead indicator NEM probably began a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, if there is an upside surprise, it should be by NEM.
There should be another good/potentially great opportunity to "get your shorts on" this week or next.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/it-looks-like-huinemxau-short-term.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:19 PM
