HUI/NEM/XAU Severe Weakness Is Likely Tomorrow
HUI/NEM/XAU's very short term Wave C that began yesterday should go parabolic and plunge early tomorrow (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), with NEM probably filling it's downside gap at 43.06 and the XAU probably filling it's downside gap at 132.09, then, a meaningful 2-3 dayish countertrend Wave B will probably occur, since the NEM Lead Indicator points to one, at
+0.85% versus the XAU today/on 3-1, at +0.22% on 2-28, and at +1.07% on 2-27.
WMT, NEM, XAU failing to fill today’s upside gaps at 48.31, 45.10, and 139.66 points to weakness tomorrow, as does the fact that the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators became bearish toward session's end, which jives with the Elliott Wave count (very short term Wave C).
The NEM Lead Indicator was about +1.30% versus the XAU shortly before 2pm (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), but closed at +0.85%, so, the NEM Lead Indicator was about -0.45% versus the XAU during the last two hours of trading, which points to weakness early tomorrow.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.61% versus SPX (S & P 500) today (equivalent of an NEM Lead Indicator at about -1.22%, because NEM/XAU are much more volatile), which points to potentially severe weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Lycos Thomson I Watch showed very bearish/strong sell interest today for WMT, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
HUI/NEM/XAU were in a very short term Wave C today as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI/XAU hit minor intermediate term cycle highs (upcycle began 1-10-07) on 2-23-07 (reliable lead indicator NEM on 2-22-07). The Wave A crash bottomed late Tuesday for HUI/NEM/XAU. The countertrend Wave B peaked late yesterday for HUI and earlier yesterday for NEM and the NEM dominated XAU.
NEM/XAU made bearish large likely breakaway gaps to the downside at Tuesday 2-27's open and probably also at today's open (HUI makes fewer gaps so I don't usually track them), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. So, NEM now has an upside gap at 47.06 and probably also at 45.10, and, the XAU has an upside gap at 147.75 and probably also at 139.66.
Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones.
The XAU has a downside gap at 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU's downside gap at 132.09 and NEM's downside gap at 43.06 will probably get filled tomorrow or Monday in this very short term Wave C, then there will probably be a meaningful Wave B type of rebound for 2-3 sessions.
After HUI/NEM/XAU complete a very short term Wave C, in which another big decline is likely, I'll probably exit my NEM short/long XAU puts positions.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
The Fed came in with a massive $17.75 Billion in credit today (punch spiking Thursday) after yesterday's unusually large (for any day but Thursday) $17.25 Billion, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/huinemxau-very-short-term-wave-c.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
+0.85% versus the XAU today/on 3-1, at +0.22% on 2-28, and at +1.07% on 2-27.
WMT, NEM, XAU failing to fill today’s upside gaps at 48.31, 45.10, and 139.66 points to weakness tomorrow, as does the fact that the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators became bearish toward session's end, which jives with the Elliott Wave count (very short term Wave C).
The NEM Lead Indicator was about +1.30% versus the XAU shortly before 2pm (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem), but closed at +0.85%, so, the NEM Lead Indicator was about -0.45% versus the XAU during the last two hours of trading, which points to weakness early tomorrow.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.61% versus SPX (S & P 500) today (equivalent of an NEM Lead Indicator at about -1.22%, because NEM/XAU are much more volatile), which points to potentially severe weakness tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Lycos Thomson I Watch showed very bearish/strong sell interest today for WMT, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
HUI/NEM/XAU were in a very short term Wave C today as expected, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI/XAU hit minor intermediate term cycle highs (upcycle began 1-10-07) on 2-23-07 (reliable lead indicator NEM on 2-22-07). The Wave A crash bottomed late Tuesday for HUI/NEM/XAU. The countertrend Wave B peaked late yesterday for HUI and earlier yesterday for NEM and the NEM dominated XAU.
NEM/XAU made bearish large likely breakaway gaps to the downside at Tuesday 2-27's open and probably also at today's open (HUI makes fewer gaps so I don't usually track them), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. So, NEM now has an upside gap at 47.06 and probably also at 45.10, and, the XAU has an upside gap at 147.75 and probably also at 139.66.
Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for HUI/XAU as well as for SPX (S & P 500), and, to a lesser extent for NEM, which should be in a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Tuesday 2-27's Wave A crash was probably an important technical breakdown for the stock market in general, meaning the major averages and nearly all sectors except a few defensive ones.
The XAU has a downside gap at 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU's downside gap at 132.09 and NEM's downside gap at 43.06 will probably get filled tomorrow or Monday in this very short term Wave C, then there will probably be a meaningful Wave B type of rebound for 2-3 sessions.
After HUI/NEM/XAU complete a very short term Wave C, in which another big decline is likely, I'll probably exit my NEM short/long XAU puts positions.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
The Fed came in with a massive $17.75 Billion in credit today (punch spiking Thursday) after yesterday's unusually large (for any day but Thursday) $17.25 Billion, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/huinemxau-very-short-term-wave-c.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
