The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -1.26% Versus The XAU Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.26% versus the XAU today, and, became more bearish toward's session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, became more bearish toward's session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=WMT&l=off&z=l&q=l&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC, which portends weakness early tomorrow, and jives with the Elliott Wave count discussed in the next paragraph.
The very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B that began early yesterday was in a final/third Wave 5 up (that was) rolling over late in the session, and, appears to have peaked,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The very large 3-4%+ spike moves by HUI/XAU today point to important peaking action, which, combined with the very short term (discussed above) and big picture Elliott Wave count, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the NEM Lead Indicator at a very bearish -1.26% versus the XAU today, as well as the WMT Lead Indicator at a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, means that it's time to look to sell short/buy puts, if that's what you're looking to do.
It looks like tomorrow will be a good time to short some stock and buy some puts. If the very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B (began early yesterday) peaked today, then there should be an intraday Wave A down early tomorrow, in which the very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B should clearly break down. Then, I'll be looking to short some stock and buy XAU puts in an intraday Wave B rebound.
NEM created a downside gap at today's open at 42.48 and the XAU created one at 129.28. NEM also has downside gaps at 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
It looks like NEM will/may fill all of it's downside gaps in the next few days, and, NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle since 2-22-07 (cycle high at 48.33) should bottom shortly after filling the last downside gap at 40.83 (at 40.50ish).
10-4-06's cycle low at 39.84 should hold, because NEM bounced right at it's primary Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, indicating that reliable lead indicator NEM probably entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06.
A scenario I've discussed many times (but not recently) before is that HUI/XAU's Wave A down cycle low of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 should closely coincide with NEM's minor intermediate term cycle low at 40.50ish. Then the Wave B up should closely coincide with Wave 1 up of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle, followed by the final Wave C downcycle of HUI/XAU's major downcycle since 2-23-07 probably closely coinciding with Wave 2 down of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle. HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 should bottom in Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07.
NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 136.66, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
XAU Implied Volatility revealed one of the largest one day spikes in fear I've ever seen, rising +48.28% to 41.280 on 3-5 from 27.840 on 3-2, which points to substantial weakness in the near future, because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear that portends weakness in the near future.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/very-short-term-countertrend-wave-b.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B that began early yesterday was in a final/third Wave 5 up (that was) rolling over late in the session, and, appears to have peaked,
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.
The very large 3-4%+ spike moves by HUI/XAU today point to important peaking action, which, combined with the very short term (discussed above) and big picture Elliott Wave count, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, the NEM Lead Indicator at a very bearish -1.26% versus the XAU today, as well as the WMT Lead Indicator at a bearish -0.35% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, means that it's time to look to sell short/buy puts, if that's what you're looking to do.
It looks like tomorrow will be a good time to short some stock and buy some puts. If the very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B (began early yesterday) peaked today, then there should be an intraday Wave A down early tomorrow, in which the very short term HUI/NEM/XAU countertrend Wave B should clearly break down. Then, I'll be looking to short some stock and buy XAU puts in an intraday Wave B rebound.
NEM created a downside gap at today's open at 42.48 and the XAU created one at 129.28. NEM also has downside gaps at 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
It looks like NEM will/may fill all of it's downside gaps in the next few days, and, NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle since 2-22-07 (cycle high at 48.33) should bottom shortly after filling the last downside gap at 40.83 (at 40.50ish).
10-4-06's cycle low at 39.84 should hold, because NEM bounced right at it's primary Secular Bull Market trendline in effect since October 2000, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, and, hit a 5% follow through major buy signal, indicating that reliable lead indicator NEM probably entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06.
A scenario I've discussed many times (but not recently) before is that HUI/XAU's Wave A down cycle low of the major downcycle since 2-23-07 should closely coincide with NEM's minor intermediate term cycle low at 40.50ish. Then the Wave B up should closely coincide with Wave 1 up of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle, followed by the final Wave C downcycle of HUI/XAU's major downcycle since 2-23-07 probably closely coinciding with Wave 2 down of a new NEM minor intermediate term upcycle. HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 should bottom in Wave C of the major downcycle since 2-23-07.
NEM/XAU have upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and at 47.06 for NEM, and, at 136.66, 139.66, and at 147.75 for the XAU.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps is the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
XAU Implied Volatility revealed one of the largest one day spikes in fear I've ever seen, rising +48.28% to 41.280 on 3-5 from 27.840 on 3-2, which points to substantial weakness in the near future, because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear that portends weakness in the near future.
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/very-short-term-countertrend-wave-b.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:53 PM
