...........Welcome To HUI/XAU's Final Wave C
HUI/XAU probably entered the final Wave C decline of their Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 (see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and their major downcycle since 12-5-06 (see charts 2 and 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html),
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. HUI's (likely) final Wave B (began 1-10-07) spike move since early yesterday peaked at mid session, and, did a severe -2%+ intraday Wave A down that may have bottomed, or should bottom early on Monday.
HUI/XAU should decline 35-40%+ in the next month or so to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines, in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Lycos Thomson I Watch again revealed strong sell interest for NEM, GFI, and WMT today, as has been the case for most of the past two weeks, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
The latest COT data for the 5 session period ending 2-6-7 is clearly bearish, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorted gold, while also taking advantage of the recent modest gold strength, since they did a significant long trade, that was much smaller than the short selling they engaged in.
The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders engaged in massive long liquidation in the five session period ending 1-30-07 (-17.50% decrease in long position), and, they massively increased their short position in the five session period ending 1-23-07 (nearly 15% increase in short position). The COT data obviously points to a major decline in gold in the near future. The clueless gold Speculators have been trading aggressively net long in recent weeks, which is another very bearish sign. They almost always do the opposite of what the savvy gold Commercial Traders do.
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The lead indicators today were nearly neutral, at +0.17% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator and +0.01% versus SPX (S & P 500) for the WMT Lead Indicator.
A vicious gold/silver stock/metals massacre appears imminent (probably began today/final Wave C).
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/nem-continues-to-act-well-and-huixaus.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=. HUI's (likely) final Wave B (began 1-10-07) spike move since early yesterday peaked at mid session, and, did a severe -2%+ intraday Wave A down that may have bottomed, or should bottom early on Monday.
HUI/XAU should decline 35-40%+ in the next month or so to their primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendlines, in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Lycos Thomson I Watch again revealed strong sell interest for NEM, GFI, and WMT today, as has been the case for most of the past two weeks, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
The latest COT data for the 5 session period ending 2-6-7 is clearly bearish, see the last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorted gold, while also taking advantage of the recent modest gold strength, since they did a significant long trade, that was much smaller than the short selling they engaged in.
The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders engaged in massive long liquidation in the five session period ending 1-30-07 (-17.50% decrease in long position), and, they massively increased their short position in the five session period ending 1-23-07 (nearly 15% increase in short position). The COT data obviously points to a major decline in gold in the near future. The clueless gold Speculators have been trading aggressively net long in recent weeks, which is another very bearish sign. They almost always do the opposite of what the savvy gold Commercial Traders do.
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The lead indicators today were nearly neutral, at +0.17% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator and +0.01% versus SPX (S & P 500) for the WMT Lead Indicator.
A vicious gold/silver stock/metals massacre appears imminent (probably began today/final Wave C).
Today's first post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/nem-continues-to-act-well-and-huixaus.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:11 PM
