.......The NEM Lead Indicator Was Bullish Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.69% versus the XAU today, and, became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. So, early strength is likely tomorrow, but, will it come after an HUI/NEM/XAU plunge at the open? The XAU's Elliott Wave patterns need to be assessed.
The XAU came very close to filling it's upside gap at 141.09 from last Friday today, with a session cycle high/likely Wave 5 cycle high for the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (since early last Friday) at 140.97, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
So, it obviously appears that the XAU's countertrend Wave B upcycle since early last Friday peaked at 140.97 today, which would mean that it's upside gap at 141.09 from last Friday is bearish breakaway gap to the downside, that's obviously no big surprise given all the major negatives right now.
The fact that NEM filled it's downside gap at 44.71 and the XAU filled it's downside gap at 139.24 today probably means the XAU won't fill it's upside gap at 141.09 in rollover/spiking mode tomorrow, but, with a bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +0.69% versus the XAU today, and, with Fed punch spiking Thursday tomorrow, the XAU may make another run at 141.09 early tomorrow.
After peaking at 140.97 the XAU did a significant intraday Wave A down that did an Elliott ABC down up down pattern, as did Wave C of that ABC down up down pattern. Then, in the last 90 minutes or so of trading the XAU did a small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. That small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern is probably just Wave 1 of a countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle, so, early strength appears likely tomorrow, which jives with the bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +0.69% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Obviously, if that small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern at session's end was an entire countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle then there will be early weakness tomorrow.
Fed Credit was a modest $2.75 Billion today after being average the prior three days, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. So, program buying/SPX strength probably won't help HUI/NEM/XAU much the next few days, though tomorrow is punch spiking Thursday.
Lycos Thomson I Watch continues to be very bearish for NEM, GFI, and WMT, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt. A massacre is probably coming soon.
The XAU has downside gaps at 136.10, and 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.88, 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/xau-is-trying-to-fill-its-upside-gap-at.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The XAU came very close to filling it's upside gap at 141.09 from last Friday today, with a session cycle high/likely Wave 5 cycle high for the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle (since early last Friday) at 140.97, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
So, it obviously appears that the XAU's countertrend Wave B upcycle since early last Friday peaked at 140.97 today, which would mean that it's upside gap at 141.09 from last Friday is bearish breakaway gap to the downside, that's obviously no big surprise given all the major negatives right now.
The fact that NEM filled it's downside gap at 44.71 and the XAU filled it's downside gap at 139.24 today probably means the XAU won't fill it's upside gap at 141.09 in rollover/spiking mode tomorrow, but, with a bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +0.69% versus the XAU today, and, with Fed punch spiking Thursday tomorrow, the XAU may make another run at 141.09 early tomorrow.
After peaking at 140.97 the XAU did a significant intraday Wave A down that did an Elliott ABC down up down pattern, as did Wave C of that ABC down up down pattern. Then, in the last 90 minutes or so of trading the XAU did a small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. That small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern is probably just Wave 1 of a countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle, so, early strength appears likely tomorrow, which jives with the bullish NEM Lead Indicator at +0.69% versus the XAU today, and, it became more bullish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
Obviously, if that small Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern at session's end was an entire countertrend intraday Wave B upcycle then there will be early weakness tomorrow.
Fed Credit was a modest $2.75 Billion today after being average the prior three days, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. So, program buying/SPX strength probably won't help HUI/NEM/XAU much the next few days, though tomorrow is punch spiking Thursday.
Lycos Thomson I Watch continues to be very bearish for NEM, GFI, and WMT, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt. A massacre is probably coming soon.
The XAU has downside gaps at 136.10, and 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.88, 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/xau-is-trying-to-fill-its-upside-gap-at.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:31 PM
