HUI's Elliott Wave Count Since The Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market Cycle High On 5-11-06
Here's HUI's Elliott Wave count since the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 5-11-06, of the Secular Bull Market since November 2000 (NEM/NEM dominated XAU's began October 2000), refer to HUI's 1 year chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=:
Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market bottomed in mid June 2006. Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market peaked in Early September 2006. Wave A of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) bottomed on 10-4-06. Wave B of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) peaked on 12-5-06, so, HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) on 12-5-06. Chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html was done shortly before Wave B of Wave C peaked (on 12-5-06).
Wave A of Wave C of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) bottomed on 1-10-07 (see refer to HUI's 1 year chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), which means that Wave B began on 1-10-07.
Wave B probably peaked early today, so, the vicious final Wave C (of Wave C of Wave C) probably began today, in which HUI/XAU should fall 35-40%+ to their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. In other words, all hell should break loose on the downside in the next 3-6 weeks.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/massive-fed-credit-past-two-days-leads.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market bottomed in mid June 2006. Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market peaked in Early September 2006. Wave A of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) bottomed on 10-4-06. Wave B of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) peaked on 12-5-06, so, HUI/XAU entered Wave C of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) on 12-5-06. Chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html was done shortly before Wave B of Wave C peaked (on 12-5-06).
Wave A of Wave C of Wave C (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) bottomed on 1-10-07 (see refer to HUI's 1 year chart at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=), which means that Wave B began on 1-10-07.
Wave B probably peaked early today, so, the vicious final Wave C (of Wave C of Wave C) probably began today, in which HUI/XAU should fall 35-40%+ to their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. In other words, all hell should break loose on the downside in the next 3-6 weeks.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/massive-fed-credit-past-two-days-leads.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:35 AM
