The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bullish +0.98% Versus The XAU Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +0.98% versus the XAU today, the WMT Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today, and, HUI/NEM/XAU have done an Elliott Wave down up down pattern since early last Thursday's Wave B cycle high, so, it didn't make sense to get my shorts on today, since there wasn't enough of a rebound (or negative lead indicators) such that it would make sense, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
In the next day or two HUI/NEM/XAU should do a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (maybe a respectable very short term Wave B as opposed to the anemic very short term one that peaked early today), and, the NEM and WMT lead indicators should turn bearish. If so, I'll be looking to get my shorts on.
Based upon HUI/XAU probably being in the final Wave C decline of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, the extremely bearish COT data (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/savvy-non-contrarian-gold-commercial.html), the fact that the Fed has pulled the plug on index fund program traders recently (In the most recent week ending 1-24-07, the largest weekly drop I remember seeing, a -$8.944 Billion decline in Fed credit, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), the XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility have been collapsing, and, the bearish NEM and WMT Lead Indicators at -1.83% versus the XAU and -0.73% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) last week, I'm expecting the bottom to fall out of HUI/XAU soon.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/huinemxau-very-short-term-wave-b.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
In the next day or two HUI/NEM/XAU should do a very short term Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern (maybe a respectable very short term Wave B as opposed to the anemic very short term one that peaked early today), and, the NEM and WMT lead indicators should turn bearish. If so, I'll be looking to get my shorts on.
Based upon HUI/XAU probably being in the final Wave C decline of the Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, the extremely bearish COT data (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/savvy-non-contrarian-gold-commercial.html), the fact that the Fed has pulled the plug on index fund program traders recently (In the most recent week ending 1-24-07, the largest weekly drop I remember seeing, a -$8.944 Billion decline in Fed credit, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), the XAU Put/Call Ratio and XAU Implied Volatility have been collapsing, and, the bearish NEM and WMT Lead Indicators at -1.83% versus the XAU and -0.73% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) last week, I'm expecting the bottom to fall out of HUI/XAU soon.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/huinemxau-very-short-term-wave-b.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
