It Looks Like The XAU Will Fill It's Upside Gap At 141.09
It looks like the XAU will fill it's upside gap at 141.09 (created at Friday's open) in a spike move early tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
The final Wave C down of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 began early on 2-1. A severe 1 day very short term Wave A down bottomed early on Friday 2-2, when the current very short term countertrend Wave B up began.
This probably (key word, always have a healthy respect for the markets) makes timing the entry point for shorting some stock/buying XAU puts "easy," because, the XAU's very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Friday should peak shortly after filling the upside gap at 141.09, and, will probably peak in the 141.50 to 142 range. So, once/assuming the upside gap at 141.09 gets filled, I'll be looking to "get my shorts on."
The XAU is in the third/Wave 5 OF Wave 5 upcycle of the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked just after Monday's open and Wave 3 peaked just after Today's open (Wave 5 should peak just after tomorrow's open). After Wave 4 down bottomed early today it did an Elliott Wave up down up down pattern, and, was in the third/final Wave 5 upcycle OF Wave 5 at session's end today.
This points to a brief spike early tomorrow followed by weakness. One could wait for an intraday Wave A down then go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B up, but, I may go short shortly after the upside gap at 141.09 gets filled, in the 141.50 to 142 range, depending on the lead indicators, which should be clearly bearish. Now you know why (I know many of you do) cycle trendlines/channels in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps form the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
The lead indicators were slightly bearish today, at -0.15% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.05% versus SPX (S & P 500) for the WMT Lead Indicator. The NEM Lead Indicator was clearly bearish yesterday at -0.66% versus the XAU.
Lycos Thomson I Watch data showed strong sell interest yet again today (click on 5 day option to see it if you view this post after Tuesday 2-6) for NEM (largest component of HUI), GFI (second largest component of HUI the last I checked), and WMT (reliable lead indicator for SPX), which is a bearish sign, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
The bottom line is that all hell should break loose on the downside in the near future.
The XAU has downside gaps at 136.10, and 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.88, 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/huinemxau-rolloverspiking-action-at.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The final Wave C down of HUI/XAU's Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 began early on 2-1. A severe 1 day very short term Wave A down bottomed early on Friday 2-2, when the current very short term countertrend Wave B up began.
This probably (key word, always have a healthy respect for the markets) makes timing the entry point for shorting some stock/buying XAU puts "easy," because, the XAU's very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Friday should peak shortly after filling the upside gap at 141.09, and, will probably peak in the 141.50 to 142 range. So, once/assuming the upside gap at 141.09 gets filled, I'll be looking to "get my shorts on."
The XAU is in the third/Wave 5 OF Wave 5 upcycle of the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. Wave 1 peaked just after Monday's open and Wave 3 peaked just after Today's open (Wave 5 should peak just after tomorrow's open). After Wave 4 down bottomed early today it did an Elliott Wave up down up down pattern, and, was in the third/final Wave 5 upcycle OF Wave 5 at session's end today.
This points to a brief spike early tomorrow followed by weakness. One could wait for an intraday Wave A down then go short during an intraday countertrend Wave B up, but, I may go short shortly after the upside gap at 141.09 gets filled, in the 141.50 to 142 range, depending on the lead indicators, which should be clearly bearish. Now you know why (I know many of you do) cycle trendlines/channels in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps form the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
The lead indicators were slightly bearish today, at -0.15% versus the XAU for the NEM Lead Indicator, and, at -0.05% versus SPX (S & P 500) for the WMT Lead Indicator. The NEM Lead Indicator was clearly bearish yesterday at -0.66% versus the XAU.
Lycos Thomson I Watch data showed strong sell interest yet again today (click on 5 day option to see it if you view this post after Tuesday 2-6) for NEM (largest component of HUI), GFI (second largest component of HUI the last I checked), and WMT (reliable lead indicator for SPX), which is a bearish sign, see http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi, http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=wmt.
The bottom line is that all hell should break loose on the downside in the near future.
The XAU has downside gaps at 136.10, and 132.09, and, NEM has downside gaps at 43.88, 43.06, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The previous post is at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/huinemxau-rolloverspiking-action-at.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:12 PM
