.......The XAU Filled It's Upside Gap At 141.09
The XAU filled it's upside gap at 141.09 from last Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==. This means that, as discussed earlier in the week, the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early on 2-1-07 has or soon should peak, and, I'll be looking to go short/buy puts tomorrow in an intraday Wave B, if the lead indicators are clearly bearish.
The XAU's 1 dayish Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle that began today appeared to be peaking/rolling over at session's end, but, it could also be a big intraday Wave 3 rolling over with Wave 5 coming tomorow. Either way the 1 dayish upcycle and the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early on 2-1-07 should soon peak.
Lycos Thomson I Watch turned bearish late in the session for NEM (http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and GFI (http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi) today, and, has generally been bearish or very bearish the past week or more.
The COT data in recent weeks points to a major decline in gold in the near future, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders engaged in massive long liquidation last week/five session period ending 1-30-07 (-17.50% decrease in long position), see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, and, they massively increased their short position in the five session period ending 1-23-07 (nearly 15% increase in short position).
The NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish at session's end, since the gap with the XAU closed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a neutral -0.01% versus the XAU. The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.44% versus the S & P 500 today/on 2-8.
NEM took out it's cycle high at 45.89 from 2-1-07 today, that appeared to be a Wave B cycle high, with a cycle high today at 45.96. I don't think this changes the situation much if at all, because, NEM should act well and dramatically outperform HUI/XAU until they hit Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle lows at 200-220 for HUI (220ish if HUI's trendline turns up) and at 85-90 for the XAU, at their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/short-term-huixau-versus-nem-elliott.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The XAU's 1 dayish Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle that began today appeared to be peaking/rolling over at session's end, but, it could also be a big intraday Wave 3 rolling over with Wave 5 coming tomorow. Either way the 1 dayish upcycle and the very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle since early on 2-1-07 should soon peak.
Lycos Thomson I Watch turned bearish late in the session for NEM (http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=nem) and GFI (http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=gfi) today, and, has generally been bearish or very bearish the past week or more.
The COT data in recent weeks points to a major decline in gold in the near future, since the savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders engaged in massive long liquidation last week/five session period ending 1-30-07 (-17.50% decrease in long position), see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, and, they massively increased their short position in the five session period ending 1-23-07 (nearly 15% increase in short position).
The NEM Lead Indicator turned bearish at session's end, since the gap with the XAU closed, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. For the session the NEM Lead Indicator was a neutral -0.01% versus the XAU. The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.44% versus the S & P 500 today/on 2-8.
NEM took out it's cycle high at 45.89 from 2-1-07 today, that appeared to be a Wave B cycle high, with a cycle high today at 45.96. I don't think this changes the situation much if at all, because, NEM should act well and dramatically outperform HUI/XAU until they hit Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle lows at 200-220 for HUI (220ish if HUI's trendline turns up) and at 85-90 for the XAU, at their primary Secular Bull Market trendlines in effect since late 2000, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/02/short-term-huixau-versus-nem-elliott.html.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:35 PM
