The US Dollar Commercial Traders Are Going Massively Long!
The non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders have been going aggressively long in recent weeks, but the most recent COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is an eye opener, see the data that's second from the bottom at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deanybtsof.htm. They went massively long, just as the gold Commercial Traders liquidated a massive chunk/percentage of their long position, see last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
When Commercial Traders make unusually large (> 10% change in long or short position) trades they tend to be early/short term contrarian, however, occasionally when they make massive trades (> 20% change in long or short position) they seem to do so very near an important cycle high or cycle low, and, they revert to their usual non contrarian indicator status. The typically non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders added a massive (> 20% increase in their long position) 5,869 long USD futures and options contracts, and, they covered a massive (> 20% decrease in their short position) 3,178 short USD futures and options contracts, which points to US Dollar strength this week and therefore gold weakness.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious 30-45%+ decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied beyond (another reason one must understand cycles, it's very likely to be a major fakeout) their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, but, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-45%+ decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
When Commercial Traders make unusually large (> 10% change in long or short position) trades they tend to be early/short term contrarian, however, occasionally when they make massive trades (> 20% change in long or short position) they seem to do so very near an important cycle high or cycle low, and, they revert to their usual non contrarian indicator status. The typically non contrarian US Dollar Commercial Traders added a massive (> 20% increase in their long position) 5,869 long USD futures and options contracts, and, they covered a massive (> 20% decrease in their short position) 3,178 short USD futures and options contracts, which points to US Dollar strength this week and therefore gold weakness.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious 30-45%+ decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied beyond (another reason one must understand cycles, it's very likely to be a major fakeout) their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, but, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-45%+ decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:09 PM
