The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Very Bearish -1.02% Versus The XAU Today
The short term NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, it was a very bearish -1.02% versus the XAU today/11-30, it was a bearish -0.57% versus the XAU on 11-29, was -0.42% versus the XAU on 11-28, was -0.26% on 11-27, and, was -2.42% for the week ending 11-24.
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
I think what's happening is that reliable lead indicator NEM DID hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 on 11-1-06 and HUI/XAU DID hit monthly cycle highs on 11-9-06, and, the cycle high that may have occurred today for HUI/NEM/XAU (should be imminent if it didn't occur today) is a Minor Intermediate Term cycle high (began 10-4-06), which obviously is the next longer cycle than a monthly cycle.
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-45% declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Today's likely Minor Intermediate Term cycle high for HUI/XAU (Minor Intermediate Term upcycle began 10-4-06) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 144.09, 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's Minor Intermediate Term downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's Minor Intermediate Term cycle low. NEM's Minor Intermediate Term downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-45%+ decline may have started today for HUI and the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
I think what's happening is that reliable lead indicator NEM DID hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 on 11-1-06 and HUI/XAU DID hit monthly cycle highs on 11-9-06, and, the cycle high that may have occurred today for HUI/NEM/XAU (should be imminent if it didn't occur today) is a Minor Intermediate Term cycle high (began 10-4-06), which obviously is the next longer cycle than a monthly cycle.
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-45% declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Today's likely Minor Intermediate Term cycle high for HUI/XAU (Minor Intermediate Term upcycle began 10-4-06) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 144.09, 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's Minor Intermediate Term downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's Minor Intermediate Term cycle low. NEM's Minor Intermediate Term downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-45%+ decline may have started today for HUI and the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:32 PM
