HUI Rallied To It's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market Downtrend Line!
HUI has rallied to it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line in it's monthly upcycle since 10-4-06, which is Wave B of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The XAU appears to have broken it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line, but, it would have to follow through by 5%+ to flash a major buy signal, and, remember that NEM dominates the XAU at about 22%+ weighting, so HUI is a more accurate picture of the gold/silver stock market right now, since reliable lead indicator NEM probably bottomed (Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market ended) on 10-4-06 at 39.84.
HUI and the XAU may finally be putting in monthly cycle highs today. Reliable lead indicator NEM tested it's monthly cycle high (that occurred at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06) today, probably putting in a very bearish quadruple top at 46.89! early today. A weak SPX (S & P 500) will probably be a major factor behind severe weakness in gold/silver stocks and many other sectors during the next 3-6 weeks due to index fund selling.
The short term NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, it was a bearish -0.57% versus the XAU on 11-29, was -0.42% versus the XAU on 11-28, was -0.26% on 11-27, and, was -2.42% for the week ending 11-24.
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-40%+ declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Today's likely monthly cycle high for HUI/XAU (monthly upcycle began 10-4-06) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06 and matched that cycle high today. NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 144.09, 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's monthly cycle low.
NEM's monthly downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline may have started today for HUI and the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI and the XAU may finally be putting in monthly cycle highs today. Reliable lead indicator NEM tested it's monthly cycle high (that occurred at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06) today, probably putting in a very bearish quadruple top at 46.89! early today. A weak SPX (S & P 500) will probably be a major factor behind severe weakness in gold/silver stocks and many other sectors during the next 3-6 weeks due to index fund selling.
The short term NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, it was a bearish -0.57% versus the XAU on 11-29, was -0.42% versus the XAU on 11-28, was -0.26% on 11-27, and, was -2.42% for the week ending 11-24.
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-40%+ declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Today's likely monthly cycle high for HUI/XAU (monthly upcycle began 10-4-06) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06 and matched that cycle high today. NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 144.09, 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's monthly cycle low.
NEM's monthly downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline may have started today for HUI and the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:13 AM
