An Extremely Bearish One Year NEM Lead Indicator
The one year NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. The short term NEM Lead Indicator is very bearish, it was -0.42% versus the XAU on 11-28, was -0.26% on 11-27, and, was -2.42% for the week ending 11-24.
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-40%+ declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Monday's likely monthly cycle high for HUI (monthly upcycle began 10-4-06, XAU might have peaked today) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06. NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's monthly cycle low.
NEM's monthly downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline may have started on Monday for HUI and may have started today for the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU are likely to experience Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 during the next 3-6 weeks and experience vicious 30-40%+ declines, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Monday's likely monthly cycle high for HUI (monthly upcycle began 10-4-06, XAU might have peaked today) was the Wave B of Wave C cycle high of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
Reliable lead indicator NEM hit a monthly cycle high at 46.89 way back on 11-1-06. NEM/XAU downside gaps to watch are 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, 40.83 for NEM, and, at 141.59, 138.37, 132.67 for the XAU. HUI tends to have fewer gaps, so I don't usually track HUI's gaps.
NEM's monthly downcycle should bottom shortly after NEM fills it's downside gap at 40.83, so, 40.50ish is a reasonable target for reliable lead indicator NEM's monthly cycle low.
NEM's monthly downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, then, NEM's Wave 1 short term upcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave B up of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline. Then, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of a new monthly upcycle should coincide closely with Wave C down of HUI/XAU's likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06).
Wave A of the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ decline may have started on Monday for HUI and may have started today for the XAU. Please see this previous post for many details regarding the likely vicious 3-6 week 30-40%+ HUI/XAU decline: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/what-will-cause-dramatic-huixau-decline.html.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave A down of the likely 3-6 weekish vicious decline for HUI/XAU. Since 10-4-06 HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, may have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), in which HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:28 AM
