HUI/NEM/XAU's Rebound Since Early Friday Lives
HUI/NEM/XAU's rebound since early Friday lives. HUI was able to complete an Elliot Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in Wave B up of Wave A down, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. HUI was able to put in a third/Wave 5 cycle high early today, in the upcycle since early Friday. The XAU is trying to complete an Elliot Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern in Wave B up of Wave A down. Sometimes when the longer cycles are strong in the opposite direction, Elliot Wave patterns can be muted/flat or might not even get completed.
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave C down of Wave A for HUI/XAU. HUI/XAU completed Elliot Wave ABC down up down patterns (since their monthly cycle highs on 11-9-06) on Friday, and, reliable lead indicator NEM has completed it's second Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern since it's monthly cycle high on 11-1-06.
HUI/XAU completed Wave A of Wave A of it's likely 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline on Friday, so, the upcycle since just after Friday's open (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) is/was Wave B up of Wave A down, so, HUI/XAU may be in Wave C of Wave A down now (should fill today's downside gaps created at the open). If HUI/XAU were merely doing a monthly downcycle, they would have bottomed just after Friday's open and would now be in Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle.
It's very unlikely that they're in a monthly upcycle now because HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle (ended 11-9-06), and, appear to have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) and the very bearish COT data in recent weeks (see next paragraph) support the vicious decline scenario.
The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (five day period ending 11-14) again jives with the vicious decline scenario, since the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short, while the contrarian/clueless gold Speculators traded significantly net long, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorted gold again this week, adding 18,336 short futures and options contracts after adding 25,249 short futures and options contracts the week before, while also correctly anticipating that there would be some significant strength, because they added 8,943 long futures and options contracts.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/NEM/XAU should be about to fall off a cliff the next few sessions, which will be Wave C down of Wave A for HUI/XAU. HUI/XAU completed Elliot Wave ABC down up down patterns (since their monthly cycle highs on 11-9-06) on Friday, and, reliable lead indicator NEM has completed it's second Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern since it's monthly cycle high on 11-1-06.
HUI/XAU completed Wave A of Wave A of it's likely 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline on Friday, so, the upcycle since just after Friday's open (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==) is/was Wave B up of Wave A down, so, HUI/XAU may be in Wave C of Wave A down now (should fill today's downside gaps created at the open). If HUI/XAU were merely doing a monthly downcycle, they would have bottomed just after Friday's open and would now be in Wave 1 of a monthly upcycle.
It's very unlikely that they're in a monthly upcycle now because HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle (ended 11-9-06), and, appear to have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) and the very bearish COT data in recent weeks (see next paragraph) support the vicious decline scenario.
The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (five day period ending 11-14) again jives with the vicious decline scenario, since the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded significantly net short, while the contrarian/clueless gold Speculators traded significantly net long, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively shorted gold again this week, adding 18,336 short futures and options contracts after adding 25,249 short futures and options contracts the week before, while also correctly anticipating that there would be some significant strength, because they added 8,943 long futures and options contracts.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:25 AM
