Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Elliot Wave Count
Reliable lead indicator NEM completed Wave A down of it's Wave C short term downcycle today (Thursday 11-9's cycle high at 46.86 was a bearish Wave B triple top, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), hitting a Wave A of Wave C cycle low at 44.41. This means that NEM will soon be in Wave C of Wave C, because it's Wave B up (of Wave C) today appears to be peaking.
So, NEM should soon experience a substantial decline and approach it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 that occurred on 10-4-06. Since reliable lead indicator NEM should now be in a five yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, the cycle low at 39.84 should hold. NEM approaching 39.84 makes sense cyclewise, because NEM's Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market uptrend should begin relatively flat.
The fact that NEM is probably about to experience a substantial decline means that HUI/XAU should also. NEM's Wave C of Wave C should coincide with Wave C of Wave A for HUI/XAU. Then, once NEM hits a monthly cycle low, it's Wave 1 short term upcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave B up, then NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave C down, in which their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 should bottom.
Given that HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle, and, appear to be about to enter Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may be about to experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
So, NEM should soon experience a substantial decline and approach it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 that occurred on 10-4-06. Since reliable lead indicator NEM should now be in a five yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, the cycle low at 39.84 should hold. NEM approaching 39.84 makes sense cyclewise, because NEM's Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market uptrend should begin relatively flat.
The fact that NEM is probably about to experience a substantial decline means that HUI/XAU should also. NEM's Wave C of Wave C should coincide with Wave C of Wave A for HUI/XAU. Then, once NEM hits a monthly cycle low, it's Wave 1 short term upcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave B up, then NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle should coincide with HUI/XAU's Wave C down, in which their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 should bottom.
Given that HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle, and, appear to be about to enter Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may be about to experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:10 AM
