The COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Jives With The Vicious Decline Scenario
The COT (Commitments Of Traders) data for the 5 session period ending 11-7-06(http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm) jives with the vicious decline scenario, as does the 5% decline experienced by HUI in Wave A OF Wave A of it's monthly downcycle since 11-9-06, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders added an unusually large (> 10% increase in their short position) 25,249 short futures and options contracts, which is possibly the largest (at least one of the largest) short trade they've made in over a year. The contrarian/clueless gold Speculators added an unusually large (> 10% increase in their long position) 14,552 long futures and options contracts. These very large trades are very bearish on an intermediate term (weeks/months) basis, but, point to some strength short term.
The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders tend to be a bit early when they make unusually large trades, while the contrarian/clueless gold Speculators tend to be short term non contrarian when they trade with a lot of conviction.
The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator suggests that a vicious decline is likely in the near future, and, may have begun on 11-9-06, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.38% versus the XAU on 11-13/today, was a slightly bullish +0.09% on 11-10, was a bearish -0.47% on 11-9, was -0.15% on 11-8, and, was a bearish -0.61% on 11-7.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders added an unusually large (> 10% increase in their short position) 25,249 short futures and options contracts, which is possibly the largest (at least one of the largest) short trade they've made in over a year. The contrarian/clueless gold Speculators added an unusually large (> 10% increase in their long position) 14,552 long futures and options contracts. These very large trades are very bearish on an intermediate term (weeks/months) basis, but, point to some strength short term.
The non contrarian gold Commercial Traders tend to be a bit early when they make unusually large trades, while the contrarian/clueless gold Speculators tend to be short term non contrarian when they trade with a lot of conviction.
The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator suggests that a vicious decline is likely in the near future, and, may have begun on 11-9-06, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.38% versus the XAU on 11-13/today, was a slightly bullish +0.09% on 11-10, was a bearish -0.47% on 11-9, was -0.15% on 11-8, and, was a bearish -0.61% on 11-7.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:15 PM
