The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Slightly Bearish -0.15% Vs The XAU Today
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.15% vs the XAU today after being a bearish -0.61% yesterday. The Wave A short term downcycle since Monday for HUI/XAU and since 11-1 for NEM will probably bottom by week's end, IF this is a two weekish monthly downcycle and not the vicious 3-6 weekish decline that the one year NEM Lead Indicator suggests is likely.
NEM's downside gap at 45.27 from 11-1 finally got filled today, confirming that the large gap up from 45.27 to 46.25 on 11-1 wasn't an important breakaway gap, but, instead was spiking/peaking action, which means that monthly cycle highs probably occurred on Monday for HUI/XAU and on 11-1 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the monthly upcycle that began on 10-4-06.
There are two potential scenarios right now. The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, points to another vicious 3-6 weekish 30-35%+ decline for HUI/XAU, that would probably mark the end of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator is similar to the way it was in May and early September when vicious declines began.
What's interesting is that reliable lead indicator NEM probably hit a very important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, so, NEM should only decline 10-15% while HUI/XAU drop 30-35%+. The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
NEM's downside gap at 45.27 from 11-1 finally got filled today, confirming that the large gap up from 45.27 to 46.25 on 11-1 wasn't an important breakaway gap, but, instead was spiking/peaking action, which means that monthly cycle highs probably occurred on Monday for HUI/XAU and on 11-1 for reliable lead indicator NEM, for the monthly upcycle that began on 10-4-06.
There are two potential scenarios right now. The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, points to another vicious 3-6 weekish 30-35%+ decline for HUI/XAU, that would probably mark the end of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. The very bearish one year NEM Lead Indicator is similar to the way it was in May and early September when vicious declines began.
What's interesting is that reliable lead indicator NEM probably hit a very important Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06, so, NEM should only decline 10-15% while HUI/XAU drop 30-35%+. The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:18 PM
