...........A Rare Gold Article Worth Reading
See http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB98F74D2%2DF404%2D4A56%2DBE84%2D85889FB20976%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw.
Here's part of the (Mark Hulbert's) article: "But the gold timers' eagerness in recent sessions to give up on their bearishness and turn bullish has been nothing short of amazing. After all, a $35 rally is not so strong as to justify throwing all caution to the winds. Yet the average gold timer's recommended exposure to the gold market has risen nearly 80 percentage points in just 14 trading sessions.
A particularly telling contrast is between the HGNSI's current level with where it stood this past May, when bullion was more than $100 higher than where it is now. If gold timers were reacting normally, they would be significantly more discouraged today than then. But they are not reacting normally. When gold hit its high this past May, the HGNSI stood at 51.8%, two percentage points lower than where it stands today.
In other words, the average gold timer is more bullish today than he was when gold was more than $100 higher.
Contrarian analysis therefore bets that gold needs to undergo at least one more serious correction in order to create the kind of pervasive skepticism that could support a sustained rally."
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Here's part of the (Mark Hulbert's) article: "But the gold timers' eagerness in recent sessions to give up on their bearishness and turn bullish has been nothing short of amazing. After all, a $35 rally is not so strong as to justify throwing all caution to the winds. Yet the average gold timer's recommended exposure to the gold market has risen nearly 80 percentage points in just 14 trading sessions.
A particularly telling contrast is between the HGNSI's current level with where it stood this past May, when bullion was more than $100 higher than where it is now. If gold timers were reacting normally, they would be significantly more discouraged today than then. But they are not reacting normally. When gold hit its high this past May, the HGNSI stood at 51.8%, two percentage points lower than where it stands today.
In other words, the average gold timer is more bullish today than he was when gold was more than $100 higher.
Contrarian analysis therefore bets that gold needs to undergo at least one more serious correction in order to create the kind of pervasive skepticism that could support a sustained rally."
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:54 AM
