...........NEM Big Breakout Appears Unlikely
Reliable lead indicator NEM only trended up 35 minutes so far today and is diving (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==), so, if NEM trends down the remainder of the session, the big breakout discussed earlier is probably unlikely and this early spike move was just the last gasp spike of the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. Big spikes tend to mark cycle highs. HUI/XAU probably remain in a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06.
However, the fact that reliable lead indicator NEM has acted well since starting a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06 is a great sign, and, points to a relatively short Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, since NEM's only lasted a little over 8 months (1-31-06 until 10-4-06). HUI/XAU's will probably only last 9-15 months, and, are nearly six months into their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06), so, they probably only have 3-9 months before they hit very important cycle lows and start a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, which should be a "monster" and will probably be considerably stronger than the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (from late 2000 until 1-31-06 for NEM/until 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU), because, cycles usually increase in strength from Wave 1 to Wave 3, and, Wave 1 was a very strong Cyclical Bull Market, in which HUI rose from November 15, 2000's very long term cycle low at 35.31 to May 11, 2006's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 401.69, which is greater than an 1000% upcycle.
Next time some gold writer says that the gold market is being manipulated/suppressed/held back by some "Cabal," possibly in concert with the US government, ask them how HUI rose by over 1000% in about five and a half years time and how gold nearly tripled in about five years time. Ask them also why would they want to scare people away from the market they're involved in? Why should anyone invest in a manipulated/suppressed market? When a market rises 1000%+ in five and a half years time one should, if anything, be wondering if the manipulation is to the upside not the downside. The answer is that commodities are in a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle, similar to the one from the mid 60s to 1980ish, and tend to be very volatile.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
However, the fact that reliable lead indicator NEM has acted well since starting a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market on 10-4-06 is a great sign, and, points to a relatively short Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU, since NEM's only lasted a little over 8 months (1-31-06 until 10-4-06). HUI/XAU's will probably only last 9-15 months, and, are nearly six months into their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06), so, they probably only have 3-9 months before they hit very important cycle lows and start a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market, which should be a "monster" and will probably be considerably stronger than the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (from late 2000 until 1-31-06 for NEM/until 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU), because, cycles usually increase in strength from Wave 1 to Wave 3, and, Wave 1 was a very strong Cyclical Bull Market, in which HUI rose from November 15, 2000's very long term cycle low at 35.31 to May 11, 2006's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 401.69, which is greater than an 1000% upcycle.
Next time some gold writer says that the gold market is being manipulated/suppressed/held back by some "Cabal," possibly in concert with the US government, ask them how HUI rose by over 1000% in about five and a half years time and how gold nearly tripled in about five years time. Ask them also why would they want to scare people away from the market they're involved in? Why should anyone invest in a manipulated/suppressed market? When a market rises 1000%+ in five and a half years time one should, if anything, be wondering if the manipulation is to the upside not the downside. The answer is that commodities are in a Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle, similar to the one from the mid 60s to 1980ish, and tend to be very volatile.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:42 AM
