XAU Implied Volatility Reveals A Significant Rise In Complacency
XAU Implied Volatility revealed a significant rise in complacency on Friday, since it fell -1.03% from 34.985 on 10-26 to 34.625 on 10-27 versus a -0.84% decline in the XAU on Friday, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +1.87% rise in complacency, since the XAU wall of worry fell by -1.87% (= -1.03% + -0.84%) on Friday, which portends some weakness on Monday.
Also, the XAU Put/Call Ratio for the November expiration rose an unusually large (> 6%) +11.35% to 1.13974 on Friday from 1.01039 on Thursday, which is an
unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness (correctly portended weakness on Friday).
When the 2-4 sessionish Wave A down of the monthly downcycle occurs (might have begun late last week) it'll probably be obvious that the monthly upcycle has peaked, since a very sharp 5-8%+ decline will probably occur.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
Also, the XAU Put/Call Ratio for the November expiration rose an unusually large (> 6%) +11.35% to 1.13974 on Friday from 1.01039 on Thursday, which is an
unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness (correctly portended weakness on Friday).
When the 2-4 sessionish Wave A down of the monthly downcycle occurs (might have begun late last week) it'll probably be obvious that the monthly upcycle has peaked, since a very sharp 5-8%+ decline will probably occur.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:45 PM
