The Monthly Upcycle Since 10-4-06 Has Peaked
Yesterday's early spike moves by HUI/NEM/XAU were probably the last gasp of the monthly upcycle since 10-4-06. HUI/NEM/XAU are now clearly in a short term downcycle that's probably a 2-4 session Wave A of a one to two week monthly downcycle. HUI/NEM/XAU are likely to fall in excess of 5% in Wave A as discussed previously.
If you're the type that likes to short/trade put options it probably makes sense to wait for the 2-4 session Wave B short term upcycle. By doing this you make sure that the monthly upcycle has peaked, and, you're shorting strength, which makes sense. Usually it makes sense to buy weakness and sell strength. Actually what you're really doing hopefully is buying relatively flat upcycles or selling relatively flat downcycles shortly after they begin (buying early in an upcycle or selling/shorting early in downcycles).
Reliable lead indicator NEM filled today's downside gap at 45.78 and is doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern en route to filling yesterday's downside gap at 45.27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, NEM's large gap up at the open to 46.25 from 45.27 yesterday probably isn't a major breakout with big implications for HUI/XAU as discussed yesterday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.17% versus the XAU yesterday, but, it turned very bearish at session's end, which correctly portended weakness early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
If you're the type that likes to short/trade put options it probably makes sense to wait for the 2-4 session Wave B short term upcycle. By doing this you make sure that the monthly upcycle has peaked, and, you're shorting strength, which makes sense. Usually it makes sense to buy weakness and sell strength. Actually what you're really doing hopefully is buying relatively flat upcycles or selling relatively flat downcycles shortly after they begin (buying early in an upcycle or selling/shorting early in downcycles).
Reliable lead indicator NEM filled today's downside gap at 45.78 and is doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern en route to filling yesterday's downside gap at 45.27, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. So, NEM's large gap up at the open to 46.25 from 45.27 yesterday probably isn't a major breakout with big implications for HUI/XAU as discussed yesterday.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +1.17% versus the XAU yesterday, but, it turned very bearish at session's end, which correctly portended weakness early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:23 AM
