The Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data Is Bearish/Mixed
The Gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is bearish/mixed, since the non contrarian gold Commercial Traders aggressively liquidated their long position (sold 7667 long futures and options contracts) and added significantly to their short position (added 3711 short futures and options contracts), while the contrarian gold Speculators added 2801 long futures and options contracts and covered an unusually large (>10% decrease in their short position) 5245 short futures and options contracts, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
Basically, the gold COT data jives with a monthly cycle high probably occurring this week (11-1 for NEM/XAU and 11-3 for HUI), however, the unusually large degree of short covering by the usually contrarian gold Speculators portends some strength next week, but, most of that strength probably occurred this week, because monthly cycle highs probably occurred this week for HUI/NEM/XAU (though gold tends to lag gold stocks), and, the COT data is three days old when released (reflects the five session period ending 10-31-06).
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Basically, the gold COT data jives with a monthly cycle high probably occurring this week (11-1 for NEM/XAU and 11-3 for HUI), however, the unusually large degree of short covering by the usually contrarian gold Speculators portends some strength next week, but, most of that strength probably occurred this week, because monthly cycle highs probably occurred this week for HUI/NEM/XAU (though gold tends to lag gold stocks), and, the COT data is three days old when released (reflects the five session period ending 10-31-06).
The monthly cycle since 10-4-06 is probably the start of the 3-6 monthish Wave B up of HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see the first chart at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:19 PM
