How Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Could Fall About 17% While HUI/XAU Fall 30-40%
This is how reliable lead indicator NEM could fall 17% (since/assuming it hit a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at 39.84 on 10-4-06) while HUI/XAU fall 30-40%, and, probably conclude their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06:
NEM is technically in Wave C of a monthly downcycle (since hitting a Wave B cycle high at 46.86 (I said 46.85 earlier which was the close) just before yesterday's close) that's likely to be a big/long two weekish Wave C instead of the usual 2-4 day Wave C short term downcycle in a monthly downcycle. So, HUI/XAU are likely to have a big/long two weekish Wave A down instead of the usual 2-4 day Wave A short term downcycle (this assumes the vicious decline scenario). Then, after NEM hits a monthly cycle low and enters a Wave 1 short term upcycle, THAT will correspond to HUI/XAU's Wave B up of the vicious decline. Finally, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle will correspond to HUI/XAU's Wave C of their vicious decline. This is a reasonably likely scenario where NEM could dramatically outperform HUI/XAU by about 20% over 3-6 weeks time.
HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, appear to be about to enter Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), so, since reliable lead indicator NEM probably completed it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) on 10-4-06 at 39.84, it makes sense that HUI/XAU are about to experience a vicious decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, because they've rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend lines. The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.47% versus the XAU yesterday, was -0.15% on 11-8, and, was -0.61% on 11-7.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
NEM is technically in Wave C of a monthly downcycle (since hitting a Wave B cycle high at 46.86 (I said 46.85 earlier which was the close) just before yesterday's close) that's likely to be a big/long two weekish Wave C instead of the usual 2-4 day Wave C short term downcycle in a monthly downcycle. So, HUI/XAU are likely to have a big/long two weekish Wave A down instead of the usual 2-4 day Wave A short term downcycle (this assumes the vicious decline scenario). Then, after NEM hits a monthly cycle low and enters a Wave 1 short term upcycle, THAT will correspond to HUI/XAU's Wave B up of the vicious decline. Finally, NEM's Wave 2 short term downcycle of it's monthly upcycle will correspond to HUI/XAU's Wave C of their vicious decline. This is a reasonably likely scenario where NEM could dramatically outperform HUI/XAU by about 20% over 3-6 weeks time.
HUI/XAU have rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines, and, appear to be about to enter Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), so, since reliable lead indicator NEM probably completed it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 1-31-06) on 10-4-06 at 39.84, it makes sense that HUI/XAU are about to experience a vicious decline, that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market, because they've rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend lines. The other scenario is the 2 weekish monthly downcycle scenario where HUI/XAU drop 8-15%. If the vicious decline scenario occurs short term there should soon be some big down days of 3-5%+. It should make itself obvious.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.47% versus the XAU yesterday, was -0.15% on 11-8, and, was -0.61% on 11-7.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 3 and 5 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:11 AM
