......................A Very Complacent XAU
The XAU experienced a very sharp rise in complacency on Friday, since XAU Implied Volatility fell -3.21% to 31.470 from 32.515 on 11-16 versus a slight +0.19% rise in the XAU, which is a very sharp (3-6%) +3.02% rise in complacency that portends potentially severe weakness on Monday (-3.21% + +0.19% = -3.02% decline in the XAU wall of worry = +3.02% rise in complacency).
Also, the XAU Put/Call Ratio for the December expiration is at
0.96771 on 11-17 versus 1.11389 on 11-17 for the final November expiration value, which is a substantial rise in complacency despite a collapsing XAU, which is a major negative.
The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.28% versus the XAU on Friday/11-17, which also points to weakness on Monday.
Wave A of Wave A for HUI/XAU will probably bottom next week, and, Wave A of Wave C of Wave C for NEM will probably bottom next week (NEM has a bearish Wave B triple top at 46.86 on 11-9, so, NEM is doing a big Wave C down that's similar to but "nastier" than a typical entire monthly downcycle).
Please see Thursday's posts for the details regarding HUI/XAU and reliable lead indicator NEM: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/reliable-lead-indicator-nem-is-in-wave.html, http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/reliable-lead-indicator-nem-has-short.html.
Given that HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle (ended 11-9-06), and, appear to have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Also, the XAU Put/Call Ratio for the December expiration is at
0.96771 on 11-17 versus 1.11389 on 11-17 for the final November expiration value, which is a substantial rise in complacency despite a collapsing XAU, which is a major negative.
The NEM Lead Indicator was -0.28% versus the XAU on Friday/11-17, which also points to weakness on Monday.
Wave A of Wave A for HUI/XAU will probably bottom next week, and, Wave A of Wave C of Wave C for NEM will probably bottom next week (NEM has a bearish Wave B triple top at 46.86 on 11-9, so, NEM is doing a big Wave C down that's similar to but "nastier" than a typical entire monthly downcycle).
Please see Thursday's posts for the details regarding HUI/XAU and reliable lead indicator NEM: http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/reliable-lead-indicator-nem-is-in-wave.html, http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2006/11/reliable-lead-indicator-nem-has-short.html.
Given that HUI/XAU rallied toward their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06) downtrend lines in the latest monthly upcycle (ended 11-9-06), and, appear to have entered Wave C of Wave C (Wave C is probably doing an Elliot Wave ABC down up down pattern), HUI/XAU may experience a vicious 3-6 weekish 30-40% decline that should mark the end of their Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began 5-11-06). They should decline to or at least approach their Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines at 200ish for HUI (the trendline could turn up to 220ish since HUI is more parabolic/volatile than the XAU) and at 90ish for the XAU, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 2 and 4 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 3 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:03 AM
