...................Watch Today's Downside Gaps
The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 144.96 created at today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and NEM may fill it's downside gap at 51.92 created at today's open. If the XAU fills it's downside gap at 144.96 then it will test Tuesday's potential short term cycle low, so, a short term cycle low may not have occurred Tuesday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's sharp decline to 0.64428 today from 0.67080 on Tuesday (August expiration) portends a sharp decline today (following early strength consisting of mostly the gap up at the open), which increases the likelihood that yesterday's potential short term cycle low will be tested.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio's recent collapse to a complacent 0.64428 today (August expiration), the negative NEM Lead Indicator at -0.73% versus the XAU so far this week, at -0.86% versus the XAU last week, and at -4.31% the week before, and the aggressive long liquidation by the gold Commercial Traders in the five sessions ending 8-1-06, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, are major warning signs, which jives with my expectation that after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13, because reliable lead indicator NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06, and, I'm looking for Wave C down of the Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks. The XAU may attempt to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 short term, then look out and batten the hatches.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The XAU Put/Call Ratio's recent collapse to a complacent 0.64428 today (August expiration), the negative NEM Lead Indicator at -0.73% versus the XAU so far this week, at -0.86% versus the XAU last week, and at -4.31% the week before, and the aggressive long liquidation by the gold Commercial Traders in the five sessions ending 8-1-06, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, are major warning signs, which jives with my expectation that after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13, because reliable lead indicator NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06, and, I'm looking for Wave C down of the Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks. The XAU may attempt to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 short term, then look out and batten the hatches.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:19 AM
