The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.50% Vs The XAU Today
On top of all the negatives discussed earlier today the NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.50% vs the XAU today, and, tomorrow is an important Fed FOMC meeting in which they're likely to pause hiking rates, but, what will their statement say?
It looks like a Wave 5 short term upcycle began late last week (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) but I didn't pull the trigger today because of all the negatives/uncertainty. SLW didn't fill the downside gap at 10.15 from last Wednesday and doesn't look like it will in Wave 5, which added more uncertainty.
What's likely to happen is the Fed pauses tomorrow and most indexes including HUI/XAU rally for a few days, then Wave 5 "peaks," but, there's likely to be another short term upcycle in Wave 5 with the monthly upcycle and Wave 5 peaking in rollover/flattening out mode, as occurred in the prior monthly upcycle from 6-13 to 7-12.
HUI appears to have begun a Wave 5 short term upcycle/hit a short term cycle low mid session Thursday (reliable lead indicator NEM Wednesday) since HUI did an ABC down up down pattern after hitting a Wave 3 short term cycle high Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, the XAU appears to have put in a short term cycle low late Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.
Buying on Tuesday will take the balls to buy ahead of the FOMC's rate decision on Tuesday at 2:15ish EST. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
It looks like a Wave 5 short term upcycle began late last week (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=) but I didn't pull the trigger today because of all the negatives/uncertainty. SLW didn't fill the downside gap at 10.15 from last Wednesday and doesn't look like it will in Wave 5, which added more uncertainty.
What's likely to happen is the Fed pauses tomorrow and most indexes including HUI/XAU rally for a few days, then Wave 5 "peaks," but, there's likely to be another short term upcycle in Wave 5 with the monthly upcycle and Wave 5 peaking in rollover/flattening out mode, as occurred in the prior monthly upcycle from 6-13 to 7-12.
HUI appears to have begun a Wave 5 short term upcycle/hit a short term cycle low mid session Thursday (reliable lead indicator NEM Wednesday) since HUI did an ABC down up down pattern after hitting a Wave 3 short term cycle high Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, the XAU appears to have put in a short term cycle low late Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.
Buying on Tuesday will take the balls to buy ahead of the FOMC's rate decision on Tuesday at 2:15ish EST. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:11 PM
