.....................Waiting For A Pullback
One needs to wait and see if the XAU will fill it's downside gap at 145.69 created at today's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, NEM has a downside gap at 52.39 created at today's open that must be watched. If the XAU fills it's downside gap at 145.69 then it will test yesterday's potential short term cycle low, so, a short term cycle low may not have occurred yesterday.
Today's Employment Report probably caused the large gap up/spike at the open, but, assuming the XAU's downside gap at 145.69 gets filled, it'll have been a good but very brief headfake to those who chased the very early strength. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's collapse to 0.69376 today from 0.74546 yesterday (August expiration) portends a sharp decline today (from higher levels after today's large gap up), which appears to have begun as I write this.
For the SLW trade I discussed yesterday I have to watch today's downside gap at 10.47 and Wednesday's at 10.15ish. It's still likely that 10.15 will get filled.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. After this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13.
The NEM Lead Indicator at -4.31% versus the XAU last week and at -1.19% so far this week is a strong indication that risk is high right now, though the XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
Today's Employment Report probably caused the large gap up/spike at the open, but, assuming the XAU's downside gap at 145.69 gets filled, it'll have been a good but very brief headfake to those who chased the very early strength. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's collapse to 0.69376 today from 0.74546 yesterday (August expiration) portends a sharp decline today (from higher levels after today's large gap up), which appears to have begun as I write this.
For the SLW trade I discussed yesterday I have to watch today's downside gap at 10.47 and Wednesday's at 10.15ish. It's still likely that 10.15 will get filled.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. After this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13.
The NEM Lead Indicator at -4.31% versus the XAU last week and at -1.19% so far this week is a strong indication that risk is high right now, though the XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:57 AM
