...........................Waiting On The Fed
Is pretty much what the market seems to be doing. The S & P 500 (SPX) and gold/silver stock indexes like HUI/XAU have basically been going sideways the past 3-4 sessions, but HUI appears to have begun a Wave 5 short term upcycle/hit a short term cycle low mid session Thursday (reliable lead indicator NEM Wednesday) since HUI did an ABC down up down pattern after hitting a Wave 3 short term cycle high Wednesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ehui&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, the XAU appears to have put in a short term cycle low late Friday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Exau.
The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 144.88 created at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If the XAU fills it's downside gap at 144.88 then it will test Friday's potential short term cycle low, so, a short term cycle low may not have occurred Friday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's sharp rise to 0.67080 today from 0.64836 Monday (August expiration) portends a sharp rise today assuming that a short term upcycle is in effect.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio's recent collapse to a complacent 0.67080 today (August expiration), the negative NEM Lead Indicator at -0.86% versus the XAU last week and at -4.31% the week before (-0.50% yesterday), and the aggressive long liquidation by the gold Commercial Traders in the five sessions ending 8-1-06, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, are major warning signs, which jives with my expectation that after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13, because reliable lead indicator NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06, and, I'm looking for Wave C down of the Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks. The XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 it looks like short term, then look out and batten the hatches.
For the SLW trade I have to watch Wednesday 8-2's downside gap at 10.15ish. It appears likely that 10.15 will get filled since SLW hit a low so far today at 10.20. Usually when a stock comes that close to filling a gap it does so shortly thereafter.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. After this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13. The NEM Lead Indicator at -0.86% versus the XAU last week and at -4.31% the week before is a strong indication that risk is high right now, though the XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The XAU may fill it's downside gap at 144.88 created at yesterday's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. If the XAU fills it's downside gap at 144.88 then it will test Friday's potential short term cycle low, so, a short term cycle low may not have occurred Friday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio's sharp rise to 0.67080 today from 0.64836 Monday (August expiration) portends a sharp rise today assuming that a short term upcycle is in effect.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio's recent collapse to a complacent 0.67080 today (August expiration), the negative NEM Lead Indicator at -0.86% versus the XAU last week and at -4.31% the week before (-0.50% yesterday), and the aggressive long liquidation by the gold Commercial Traders in the five sessions ending 8-1-06, see http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm, are major warning signs, which jives with my expectation that after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13, because reliable lead indicator NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06, and, I'm looking for Wave C down of the Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down after this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks. The XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 it looks like short term, then look out and batten the hatches.
For the SLW trade I have to watch Wednesday 8-2's downside gap at 10.15ish. It appears likely that 10.15 will get filled since SLW hit a low so far today at 10.20. Usually when a stock comes that close to filling a gap it does so shortly thereafter.
Given/assuming that NEM began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06 one should be more cautious now about trading long. After this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13. The NEM Lead Indicator at -0.86% versus the XAU last week and at -4.31% the week before is a strong indication that risk is high right now, though the XAU wants to fill it's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:15 AM
