...........Still Wave 4 Short Term Downcycle

The XAU filled it's downside gap at 144.88 (created yesterday) today, and, Wave 4 was still in effect because Friday's cycle low was taken out. A short term cycle low/start of the monthly upcycle's (since 7-24) Wave 5 is probably imminent and may have started near session's end today (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=). HUI, NEM, and the XAU were still in Wave 4 during most of today's session (recent cycle lows were taken out) and Wave 5 is probably imminent.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a modestly bearish -0.23% vs the XAU today, so more weakness is likely tomorrow, which may present a short term trading opportunity (monthly upcycle's Wave 5) for daredevils in this risky environment. SLW filled it's downside gap at 10.15 from 8-2 today, so, I'll be looking to trade the Wave 5 short term upcycle long tomorrow.

The negative NEM Lead Indicator at -0.86% versus the XAU last week and at -4.31% the week before (-0.50% yesterday and -0.23% today) is one strong indication that risk is high right now, but the main reason is that NEM probably began an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU probably did so on 5-11-06. After this minor intermediate term upcycle since 6-13 peaks I expect lower cycle lows to occur than those that occurred on 6-13. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/