The NEM Lead Indicator Was A Bearish -0.48% Vs The XAU Today
After being a very bullish +1.76% yesterday vs the XAU. A Monthly Cycle High may have occurred today for HUI/NEM/XAU or is probably imminent. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU is at an overbought extreme near 0. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear likely. The XAU Put/Call Ratio at a high fear level of 1.10470 today and XAU Implied Volatility at a high fear level of 34.900 yesterday indicate that the major upcycle since 5-16-05 probably is in Wave 5 since 3-10-06, and, as the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:22 PM
6 Comments:
Shares are being severely outperformed by the metals yet again. I keep thinking that if we reach the point where the shares should have started their 5 up (instead of being dragged up during what should still ahve been wave 4 by the metals), we could get a huge spike.
By
Jeff, at 7:46 AM
"Gold is way up XAU can't get out of it's own way."
Yup, that's what frightens me. The shares never led this time around. It's also the major question: Is this a case of the shares waiting to get out of their own way, or a signal of a pretty major monthly cycle decline?
By
Jeff, at 9:39 AM
I don't know if the Fed can stop. The numbers behind the CPI are even worse than the headlines on it. I always believed that given a catch-22, the Fed would prefer inflation to depression (and we would still eventually end up with both). I wonder if that rationale changes where the Fed cannot succeed in hiding the inflation.
By
Jeff, at 10:19 AM
betts,
Historically, it has been the stocks to the point that it was axiomatic. This cycle has been weird.
By
Jeff, at 10:41 AM
"Next set I think I will play the entire month. I thought I was Mr Smarty playing inside the monthly's, dumb a** I am."
Hey Garry,
See my rules, hehe. You are not dumb - dumb people would keep trying to fix the weak point instead of moving to their strong point. You learn fast.
By
Jeff, at 10:53 AM
Garry,
I don't remember what puts you had - as far as the expirations go. If they are close in time and waaay out of the money now, it might be best just to hold them. I think the Fed will raise rates more times than most. I hope I am wrong about that, but the more of that report I read, along with the changes in the CPI calculations, the worse it seemed.
By
Jeff, at 8:36 PM
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