.......A Monthly Cycle High Occurred Yesterday
Near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. Today's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at a very high fear level = 1.35379 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 36.355 yesterday, which is also a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU yesterday, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 yesterday. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear to have begun today. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio is at a very high fear level = 1.35379 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 36.355 yesterday, which is also a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bearish -0.30% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU yesterday, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday. The past few weeks COT data revealed that the gold Commercial Traders appeared to be anticipating a monthly cycle high, but, correctly anticipated strength last week and some this week. There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 yesterday. It's very risky to be long on a monthly cycle basis. 10-12% declines in HUI/NEM/XAU over the next week or two appear to have begun today. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:36 AM
1 Comments:
Remember that this correction should follow an ABC pattern, with each Wave lasting about 2-4 days. Ciao
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:20 AM
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